Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:46:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

34 0x341f…0442 other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL +$297 (+48%) realized +$296 · open +$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +140% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +100% what you keep after slip

Net edge+100%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%2W / 1L

Drawdown36%max

Avg bet$156per market

Trades / day9.0pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)+117.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+140.1%	+117.2%	67%	67%	+18.0%
≤30d	3	+140.1%	+117.2%	67%	67%	+18.0%
≤90d	3	+140.1%	+117.2%	67%	67%	+18.0%
all	3	+140.1%	+117.2%	67%	67%	+18.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover9.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+117.2%	67%	+18.0%
10%	+96.4%	67%	+6.7%
15%	+77.4%	67%	-3.6%
20%	+60.1%	33%	-13.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 73% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +30% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +140% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$147 vs −$106 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×2.78 per $1 lost it wins $2.78

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$6

Realized+$296

Unrealized+$1

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses2 / 1

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$156

Trades / day9.0

Drawdown36%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	7¢	8¢	$5	$6	+$1 (+27%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$369	−$106	-29%
Spread: Japan (-2.5)	Jun 21	$53	+$215	+408%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$196	+$79	+40%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	7¢	$5	54m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	36¢	$146	1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	59¢	$117	1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	44¢	$102	2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	69¢	$267	2h
Spread: Japan (-2.5)	SELL Japan	99¢	$267	19h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	96¢	$276	20h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$196	24h
Spread: Japan (-2.5)	BUY Japan	19¢	$53	24h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.34 · official $6.34 (match) · 9 history records