Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:08:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x341f…fcf8 sports 11 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (100 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+1%) realized +$13 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate89%8W / 1L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day100.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$9
other 15% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +1.0% -8.6% 89% 0% -8.4%
≤30d 9 +1.0% -8.6% 89% 0% -8.4%
≤90d 9 +1.0% -8.6% 89% 0% -8.4%
all 9 +1.0% -8.6% 89% 0% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover100.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.6% 0% -8.4%
10% ← realistic here -17.4% 0% -17.2%
15% -25.4% 0% -25.2%
20% -32.7% 0% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×14.22 per $1 lost it wins $14.22
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$13
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses8 / 1
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day100.0
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Under 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Under 88¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $20 $0 +2%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $30 $0 +1%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $25 +$1 +5%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $76 $0 +0%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $40 $0 +1%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 $0 -4%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 96¢ $10 6m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 95¢ $5 6m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 94¢ $5 6m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 94¢ $10 7m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 91¢ $5 8m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 91¢ $5 8m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 88¢ $5 8m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 80¢ $10 11m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 78¢ $5 11m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 79¢ $5 11m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 74¢ $5 12m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 73¢ $5 13m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 73¢ $5 13m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 72¢ $5 13m
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 SELL Under 76¢ $1 16m
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 SELL Under 76¢ $0 16m
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 SELL Under 76¢ $4 16m
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 BUY Under 77¢ $5 18m
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 SELL Under 75¢ $5 19m
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 BUY Under 73¢ $5 20m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $12 20m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 50¢ $5 23m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 47¢ $5 24m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 46¢ $5 25m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 43¢ $5 27m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 42¢ $5 28m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 30m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 37m
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 88¢ $15 39m
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 87¢ $5 46m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.01 (match) · 100 history records