Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:39:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
34 0x341f…7ece world 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 304d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$41 (+3%) realized +$41 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate43%19W / 25L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$35
30 days+$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% +$33
politics 26% +$6
other 18% +$1
sports 11% $0
crypto 5% $0
tech 4% $0
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.7% -10.2% 25% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 13 +4.3% -5.6% 38% 8% -4.1%
≤90d 13 +4.3% -5.6% 38% 8% -4.1%
all 44 +1.7% -8.0% 43% 5% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 5% -7.0%
10% -16.8% 2% -15.9%
15% -24.9% 2% -24.0%
20% -32.2% 0% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×9.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×15.64 per $1 lost it wins $15.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

304d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$41
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses19 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage304d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 17¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 24 $68 +$1 +1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $72 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $72 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $26 −$1 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $67 +$1 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $63 +$31 +49%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $44 +$3 +7%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $16 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $4 $0 +7%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $2 $0 -4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $44 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $44 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $41 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in September? Sep 13 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $135K in September? Sep 13 $36 $0 +0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Sep 13 $39 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 13 $9 $0 +1%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia? Sep 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 02 $43 $0 +1%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Sep 02 $36 +$5 +14%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 02 $57 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Sep 02 $17 $0 -0%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ben Shelton win the 2025 US Open? Aug 29 $12 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 29 $6 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Italy / Vatican? Aug 28 $12 $0 +0%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 28 $74 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 28 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 27 $40 $0 +0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 26 $38 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by August 31? Aug 26 $38 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 26 $38 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Aug 26 $10 $0 -3%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 26 $30 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Aug 25 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 25 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 25 $69 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6500 in August? Aug 25 $33 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Aug 25 $7 $0 +4%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 25 $39 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $69 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $34 3h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $34 3h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $24 11h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $37 11h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $11 11h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $23 11h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $49 11h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $50 28h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $22 28h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $72 32h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $2 36h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $13 36h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $9 36h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $26 37h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $35 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $32 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 89¢ $34 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 89¢ $33 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 77¢ $49 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 78¢ $50 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 25¢ $9 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 25¢ $10 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 25¢ $0 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 25¢ $13 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 25¢ $12 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 7¢ $13 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 17¢ $12 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.02 · official $0.00 (match) · 150 history records