Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:23:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
34 0x341c…5aea sports 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 236d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$158 (-14%) realized −$158 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%10W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$528
7 days+$528
14 days+$528
30 days+$528
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$141
other 31% +$529
crypto 2% −$15
politics 0% −$3
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +96.3% +77.6% 67% 67% +126.0%
≤30d 3 +96.3% +77.6% 67% 67% +126.0%
≤90d 3 +96.3% +77.6% 67% 67% +126.0%
all 21 +13.5% +2.7% 48% 48% +19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.7% 48% +19.9%
10% -7.1% 48% +8.4%
15% -16.1% 43% -2.1%
20% -24.3% 43% -11.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +150% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$88 vs −$46 · ×1.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.72 per $1 lost it wins $1.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

236d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$158
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses10 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage236d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $5 $0 -5%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $245 +$390 +159%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $103 +$139 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Feb 04 $23 −$23 -100%
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? Feb 04 $5 +$1 +27%
Pacers vs. Celtics Feb 03 $96 −$96 -100%
Hornets vs. Cavaliers Feb 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Feb 03 $5 +$8 +160%
Lakers vs. Raptors Dec 05 $20 +$24 +122%
Cowboys vs. Lions Dec 05 $28 +$19 +67%
Warriors vs. 76ers Dec 05 $15 +$12 +82%
Celtics vs. Cavaliers Dec 04 $20 +$51 +257%
Thunder vs. Warriors Dec 03 $21 −$21 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the government shutdown end November 13? Nov 13 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $340 −$340 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Nov 09 $130 +$156 +120%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Nov 09 $50 +$80 +160%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner Nov 02 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner Oct 30 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) Oct 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Over $5 33m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 92¢ $634 34m
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over $5 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 31¢ $102 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 38¢ $143 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 32¢ $241 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up $3 138d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up $20 138d
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? SELL Yes 19¢ $6 138d
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 139d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 140d
Pacers vs. Celtics BUY Pacers 51¢ $50 182d
Pacers vs. Celtics BUY Pacers 44¢ $30 182d
Pacers vs. Celtics BUY Pacers 38¢ $16 182d
Hornets vs. Cavaliers BUY Hornets 17¢ $20 182d
Warriors vs. 76ers SELL 76ers 100¢ $27 200d
Lakers vs. Raptors BUY Lakers 45¢ $20 200d
Warriors vs. 76ers BUY 76ers 55¢ $15 200d
Cowboys vs. Lions BUY Lions 60¢ $28 200d
Thunder vs. Warriors BUY Warriors 10¢ $1 202d
Thunder vs. Warriors BUY Warriors 15¢ $20 202d
Celtics vs. Cavaliers BUY Celtics 28¢ $20 204d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes $1 221d
Will the government shutdown end November 13? BUY No $3 221d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY KT Rolster $50 225d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY KT Rolster 37¢ $240 225d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster 99¢ $286 225d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster 45¢ $130 225d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner SELL KT Rolster 99¢ $130 225d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 41 history records