Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:39:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x341b…b929 sports 11 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$29 (-3%) realized +$15 · open −$44
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate71%5W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$591now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 9d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% $0
other 24% −$86
weather 11% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +17.5% +6.3% 83% 67% +2.9%
≤30d 7 +0.7% -8.9% 71% 57% -25.4%
≤90d 7 +0.7% -8.9% 71% 57% -25.4%
all 7 +0.7% -8.9% 71% 57% -25.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 57% -25.4%
10% -17.6% 43% -32.6%
15% -25.5% 14% -39.1%
20% -32.8% 0% -45.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% too few recent
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$27 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$591
Realized+$15
Unrealized−$44
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses5 / 2
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions4
Markets (closed)7 / 11
History coverage9d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Over 53¢ 100¢ $100 $189 +$89 (+89%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 95¢ 77¢ $200 $163 −$37 (-18%)
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Over 74¢ 100¢ $100 $135 +$35 (+35%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 25? No 78¢ 81¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Under 38¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 24? Jun 24 $10 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 24? Jun 24 $10 +$5 +45%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $41 −$4 -10%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $30 +$8 +27%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$1 +8%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $30 +$8 +26%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $101 8m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 95¢ $200 13m
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 34¢ $98 17m
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 34¢ $102 18m
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $101 27m
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 74¢ $106 29m
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 28¢ $64 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 38¢ $102 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $101 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $102 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 25? BUY No 78¢ $101 2h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 6¢ $3 19h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 18¢ $10 19h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 96¢ $38 19h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 89¢ $11 19h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 75¢ $30 20h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 33¢ $33 20h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 20h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 29¢ $31 20h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 99¢ $38 22h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 78¢ $30 23h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 24? BUY No 68¢ $10 28h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 24? BUY No 90¢ $10 28h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 85¢ $50 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $590.67 · official $590.68 (match) · 26 history records