Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:28:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

34
0x3417…ee72
other · 24 markets active 1h ago
4.0score
+$11 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$11 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Net worth$217
Realized+$11
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions17
Markets (closed)7 / 24
History coverage18d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit25%
Chart Positions 17 History 7 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$0
14 days+$11
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $40 $37 −$3 (-9%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 36¢ 32¢ $40 $36 −$4 (-10%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-11%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 54¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 70¢ $18 $19 +$0 (+2%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 48¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-14%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? No 100¢ $1 $14 +$13 (+1328%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 55¢ 57¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+4%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 21¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 57¢ 60¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Haaland vs. Alvarez Alvarez 40¢ 36¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-10%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 18¢ 18¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 24¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+9%)
Will Arda Güler score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 32¢ 24¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-27%)
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $2 −$1 (-17%)
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Yes 32¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $5 +$4 +83%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 $0 +6%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 11 $5 $0 -8%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $82 −$3 -3%
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $25 −$1 -3%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 03 $10 $0 -3%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $16 +$11 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 85% −$4
sports 9% +$15
crypto 5% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No $1 1h
Will Arda Güler score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 32¢ $4 41h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 62¢ $3 41h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 43h
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St BUY Yes 57¢ $5 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 1.5 BUY Under 54¢ $5 2d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Canada 27¢ $5 2d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 28¢ $5 2d
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 3d
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 3d
World Cup Goals H2H: Haaland vs. Alvarez BUY Alvarez 40¢ $5 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $41 3d
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $31 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $79 3d
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 6d
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 70¢ $24 6d
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $18 10d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 43¢ $10 10d
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $25 13d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 55¢ $20 13d
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 55¢ $20 13d
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 13d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 13d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 18¢ $4 13d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 13d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 13d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $16 18d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $82 18d
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 36¢ $41 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +16.6% +5.5% 40% 40% -9.3%
≤30d 7 +21.4% +9.9% 43% 43% -2.4%
≤90d 7 +21.4% +9.9% 43% 43% -2.4%
all 7 +21.4% +9.9% 43% 43% -2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.9% 43% -2.4%
10% -0.6% 29% -11.8%
15% -10.2% 29% -20.3%
20% -19.0% 29% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $217.47 · official $217.47 (match) · 49 history records