Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:46:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x3416…adaa sports 134 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$332 (-4%) realized −$332 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%48W / 85L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day22.0pace
Fees−$185est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$453
7 days−$474
14 days−$1,209
30 days−$1,209
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$982
other 3% −$147
world 1% −$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 +4.8% -5.1% 36% 36% -21.0%
≤30d 133 -13.3% -21.6% 36% 36% -23.7%
≤90d 133 -13.3% -21.6% 36% 36% -23.7%
all 133 -13.3% -21.6% 36% 36% -23.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.6% 36% -23.7%
10% ← realistic here -29.1% 33% -31.0%
15% -35.9% 28% -37.7%
20% -42.2% 25% -43.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$44 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$332
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses48 / 85
Est. fees paid−$185
Open positions0
Markets (closed)133 / 134
History coverage12d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day22.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 133 Trades
no open positions (85 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $44 +$51 +116%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $71 +$52 +73%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $77 +$24 +31%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $46 +$27 +58%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $81 −$80 -99%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $76 +$38 +50%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $18 −$18 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $145 −$28 -19%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $205 +$117 +57%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $57 +$32 +56%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $76 +$29 +38%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $102 +$154 +152%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $46 −$45 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $10 +$53 +512%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $82 +$137 +167%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $88 −$86 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $34 −$33 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $21 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $255 +$131 +51%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $51 +$32 +64%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $101 +$32 +32%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $101 −$99 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $112 −$110 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $49 +$16 +33%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $142 −$140 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $46 +$89 +192%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $99 +$37 +38%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $25 +$98 +397%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $14 −$14 -98%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $49 −$48 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $46 +$82 +178%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $41 −$40 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $59 −$58 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $26 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $51 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Algeria 13¢ $15 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 82¢ $91 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 82¢ $4 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $44 2h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) SELL Norway 100¢ $100 3h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) SELL Norway 24¢ $23 3h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 5h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $9 5h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 35¢ $71 6h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $101 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $77 8h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner SELL Gentle Mates 48¢ $36 14h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner SELL Gentle Mates 48¢ $36 14h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner BUY Gentle Mates 15¢ $15 15h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner BUY Gentle Mates 57¢ $30 15h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $7 27h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $81 28h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 93¢ $114 29h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 61¢ $76 30h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 30h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $18 30h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 13¢ $29 31h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 70¢ $157 31h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 51¢ $117 31h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 71¢ $152 32h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 27¢ $36 32h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 65¢ $57 32h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 30¢ $49 32h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 24¢ $41 33h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 66¢ $120 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 257 history records