Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:42:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x3416…0c7c other 62 markets active 0h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$500 (-5%) realized −$437 · open −$63
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate38%23W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$157per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$237now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1,910
14 days−$1,970
30 days−$1,471
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% −$1,710
sports 22% +$1,175
crypto 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-29.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 9 -24.0% -31.2% 33% 33% -56.1%
≤90d 60 -21.6% -29.1% 38% 37% -14.1%
all 60 -21.6% -29.1% 38% 37% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.1% 37% -14.1%
10% -35.9% 35% -22.3%
15% -42.1% 33% -29.8%
20% -47.7% 28% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$163 vs −$114 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$237
Realized−$437
Unrealized−$63
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses23 / 37
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions2
Markets (closed)60 / 62
History coverage67d
Avg bet$157
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 57¢ 100¢ $100 $175 +$75 (+75%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $120 $60 −$60 (-50%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? No 1¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,723 −$1,710 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $203 −$200 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $61 −$60 -98%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 28 $152 −$150 -99%
Will West Ham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2 May 24 $325 +$654 +201%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $101 +$87 +86%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $112 +$108 +97%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $781 +$1,036 +133%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $102 +$107 +105%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $213 +$137 +65%
Will Brentford FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw? May 17 $20 +$60 +291%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Wolverhampton Wanderers FC (-1.5) May 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Leeds United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC end in a draw? May 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Manchester City win the 2025-2026 FA Cup? May 16 $303 +$120 +40%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $405 +$268 +66%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $265 −$260 -98%
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5) May 10 $31 −$30 -97%
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5) May 10 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $203 −$200 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 06 $21 −$20 -97%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5) May 06 $21 −$20 -97%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 May 05 $102 +$103 +101%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 05 $61 +$139 +226%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $24 −$23 -98%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $61 +$36 +60%
Spread: AFC Bournemouth (-1.5) May 03 $20 +$34 +165%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $101 +$62 +62%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $1,111 +$131 +12%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $101 +$46 +46%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $324 +$18 +6%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $404 +$230 +57%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5) Apr 28 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $50 −$49 -99%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $50 +$35 +70%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $100 +$45 +46%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $50 −$49 -99%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $20 −$19 -97%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $527 −$519 -98%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) Apr 19 $50 −$49 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 1¢ $5 18m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $404 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $402 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $402 5d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 50¢ $203 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $412 5d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $21 9d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $93 9d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 19¢ $61 9d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 13d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 58¢ $152 23d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 27d
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY No 50¢ $112 27d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY No 53¢ $101 27d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY No 49¢ $102 27d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY No 5¢ $10 31d
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 34d
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY No 14¢ $31 34d
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 34d
Spread: Wolverhampton Wanderers FC (-1.5) BUY Wolverhampton Wanderers FC 8¢ $31 34d
Will Leeds United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 34d
Will Brentford FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 34d
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY No 48¢ $51 34d
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY No 48¢ $51 34d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $213 34d
Will Manchester City win the 2025-2026 FA Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $303 35d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? BUY No 12¢ $51 40d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? BUY No 43¢ $102 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $236.56 · official $237.01 (match) · 133 history records