Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:15:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
34 0x3413…bca0 crypto 61 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$10 (+1%) realized +$12 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate67%40W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day10.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$80
7 days+$22
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -8.7% -17.4% 65% 65% -6.1%
≤30d 60 -8.3% -17.0% 67% 65% -9.3%
≤90d 60 -8.3% -17.0% 67% 65% -9.3%
all 60 -8.3% -17.0% 67% 65% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 65% -9.3%
10% -25.0% 63% -18.0%
15% -32.2% 43% -25.9%
20% -38.9% 3% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$12 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$12
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses40 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)60 / 61
History coverage10d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day10.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Down 51¢ 40¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$6 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$5 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $77 +$23 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$6 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $13 +$6 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $86 +$34 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 10 $22 −$22 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 10 $17 −$16 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 10 $18 +$8 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 10 $18 −$18 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 10 $23 +$6 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $19 +$10 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 09 $24 +$6 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 09 $23 −$22 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 09 $23 −$22 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 09 $41 +$17 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 09 $19 +$9 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 09 $22 −$22 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 09 $21 +$8 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 09 $22 +$8 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 09 $23 +$7 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 09 $24 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 09 $21 −$21 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 09 $16 +$4 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 09 $15 +$5 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 08 $19 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 08 $14 +$6 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 08 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 08 $14 +$6 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 08 $15 +$5 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 08 $13 +$5 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 08 $27 +$12 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $11 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.90 · official $7.90 (match) · 126 history records