Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T08:56:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x3413…2657 other 125 markets active 105d ago coverage 960d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$11,553 (-1%) realized −$11,553 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate61%76W / 49L
Whale WR66%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7,181per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 28% +$38,044
tech 27% +$3,339
sports 21% −$99,041
politics 15% +$9,457
economics 3% +$2,130
crypto 3% +$20,537
world 2% +$3,732
culture 2% +$9,420
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +11.1% +0.5% 100% 100% +0.5%
≤90d 4 +5.5% -4.5% 100% 25% -5.6%
all 125 +3.8% -6.1% 61% 34% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.1% 34% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -15.1% 24% -19.3%
15% -23.3% 18% -27.1%
20% -30.8% 14% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% too few recent
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 66% (≥$5,915) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +25% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,710 vs −$3,094 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

960d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11,553
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses76 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)66%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)125 / 125
History coverage960d
Avg bet$7,181
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 125 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will any World Cup game scheduled in the U.S. be relocated abroad? Jun 21 $45 +$5 +11%
Will the final global heat increase be 1.08 or greater for 2023? Apr 05 $1,983 +$7 +0%
Was Trump hacked? Apr 05 $1,316 +$76 +6%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 05 $13,147 +$634 +5%
Spread: Stars (-1.5) Mar 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Will ManifestingVictory win the Genesis Cup? Mar 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Broncos vs. Raiders Mar 16 $795 −$795 -100%
Over $300M committed to the Monad public sale? Mar 16 $662 −$662 -100%
Rams vs. Seahawks: O/U 46.5 Mar 16 $4,320 −$4,320 -100%
Spread: Oregon (-7.5) Mar 16 $5,341 −$5,341 -100%
Spread: Texas Tech Red Raiders (-12.5) Mar 16 $5,000 −$5,000 -100%
Georgia vs. Alabama Mar 16 $7,200 −$7,200 -100%
Chiefs vs. Cowboys: O/U 52.5 Mar 16 $7,941 −$7,894 -99%
Clemson vs. South Carolina Mar 16 $8,960 −$8,960 -100%
Raiders vs. Eagles Mar 16 $2,800 −$2,800 -100%
Seahawks vs. Falcons: O/U 44.5 Mar 16 $10,661 −$10,661 -100%
Dolphins vs. Jets Mar 16 $10,320 −$10,320 -100%
Patriots vs. Bengals Mar 16 $9,600 −$9,600 -100%
Jets vs. Jaguars Mar 16 $4,800 −$4,800 -100%
Cardinals vs. Texans Mar 16 $9,500 −$9,500 -100%
Buccaneers vs. Rams Mar 16 $14,400 −$14,400 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 16 $11,767 +$1,380 +12%
Rams vs. Seahawks Feb 28 $6,585 +$5,174 +79%
Will a Justin Bieber song reach #1 this year? Jan 14 $733 +$231 +32%
Maduro out in 2025? Jan 14 $2,722 +$558 +20%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Jan 14 $5,996 +$666 +11%
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 22? Dec 26 $5,990 +$6 +0%
Jalen Hurts: 2+ Touchdowns Dec 19 $4,950 +$50 +1%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase December 2-8? Dec 09 $11,060 +$11,981 +108%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Dec 06 $36,690 +$8,345 +23%
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Dec 04 $4,500 +$500 +11%
Packers vs. Lions Nov 29 $8,402 +$11,597 +138%
Timberwolves vs. Thunder Nov 27 $5,565 +$1,570 +28%
Will Alix Earle & Val Chmerkovskiy win Dancing with the Stars Season 3 Nov 26 $560 +$440 +79%
Will Robert Irwin & Witney Carson win Dancing with the Stars Season 34 Nov 26 $3,091 +$383 +12%
Over $250M committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 25 $5,419 +$4,645 +86%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 05 $54,775 +$3,032 +6%
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Nov 04 $13,711 −$7,427 -54%
Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Nov 04 $2,092 −$2,092 -100%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? Nov 04 $23,844 +$24,595 +103%
Over $1.2B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 30 $10,690 +$1,181 +11%
Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Oct 20 $3,562 +$3,859 +108%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Oct 20 $4,053 +$3,450 +85%
Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be between 375000 Oct 12 $176 −$176 -100%
Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be 4000000 or mor Oct 12 $6,940 +$9,006 +130%
Will 'The Fate of Ophelia' be the most streamed song on 'The Life of a Oct 09 $507 +$9 +2%
Will 'Honey' be the least streamed song on The Life of a Showgirl on O Oct 09 $434 +$136 +31%
Taylor Swift holds top ten spots on the Billboard Hot 100 for the week Oct 09 $1,471 +$338 +23%
Will Eric Adams drop out? Oct 01 $2,694 −$2,694 -100%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix? Sep 22 $24,647 +$5,831 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netanyahu out by March 31? BUY No 95¢ $13,147 104d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY Yes 90¢ $176 120d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY Yes 90¢ $330 120d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY Yes 90¢ $849 120d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY Yes 90¢ $20 120d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY Yes 90¢ $852 120d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY Yes 90¢ $128 120d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY Yes 90¢ $1,273 120d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY Yes 90¢ $5 120d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY Yes 90¢ $256 120d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY Yes 90¢ $170 120d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY Yes 90¢ $126 120d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY Yes 90¢ $8 120d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY Yes 90¢ $85 120d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY Yes 90¢ $108 120d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY Yes 90¢ $256 120d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY Yes 90¢ $119 120d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY Yes 90¢ $43 120d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY Yes 90¢ $43 120d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY Yes 90¢ $112 120d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY Yes 90¢ $895 120d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY Yes 90¢ $2,148 120d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY Yes 90¢ $209 120d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY Yes 90¢ $85 120d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY Yes 90¢ $3,039 120d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY Yes 90¢ $56 120d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY Yes 90¢ $278 120d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY Yes 90¢ $51 120d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY Yes 90¢ $9 120d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY Yes 90¢ $40 120d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 947 history records