Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:54:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
34 0x3411…c56e crypto 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$9 (+1%) realized −$22 · open +$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate80%4W / 1L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$114per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$422now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% +$100
other 44% +$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +20.1% +8.7% 80% 60% +8.3%
≤30d 5 +20.1% +8.7% 80% 60% +8.3%
≤90d 5 +20.1% +8.7% 80% 60% +8.3%
all 5 +20.1% +8.7% 80% 60% +8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.7% 60% +8.3%
10% -1.7% 60% -2.1%
15% -11.2% 60% -11.5%
20% -19.9% 60% -20.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$103 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.97 per $1 lost it wins $1.97
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$422
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$31
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)5 / 8
History coverage4d
Avg bet$114
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 32¢ 30¢ $196 $187 −$9 (-4%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 18¢ $97 $122 +$25 (+26%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ 39¢ $98 $113 +$15 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 27 $103 +$67 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 27 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 27 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 27 $103 +$54 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 27 $100 +$81 +81%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 32¢ $200 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $100 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $100 4d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 34¢ $100 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $422.13 · official $422.13 (match) · 18 history records