Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:52:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x3410…f999 weather 112 markets active 1d ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$71 (-12%) realized −$71 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate29%33W / 79L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$76
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +1.5% -8.1% 36% 36% -6.1%
≤30d 29 +4.5% -5.4% 31% 31% -2.9%
≤90d 86 -10.2% -18.8% 29% 27% -19.9%
all 112 -8.3% -17.0% 29% 25% -21.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 25% -21.5%
10% -25.0% 24% -29.0%
15% -32.2% 19% -35.9%
20% -38.9% 15% -42.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$71
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses33 / 79
Open positions0
Markets (closed)112 / 112
History coverage116d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 112 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +75%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +103%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 15? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +116%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 12 $2 +$2 +143%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 11? Jun 10 $2 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 10 $2 −$1 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 +$12 +770%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 10 $2 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 10 $2 +$11 +698%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 9? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 09 $2 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 9? Jun 09 $2 −$1 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 9? Jun 09 $2 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on April 4? Apr 05 $23 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 84°F or higher on April 4? Apr 05 $22 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on April 4? Apr 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on April 4? Apr 04 $19 −$2 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on April 4? Apr 04 $9 −$3 -35%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on April 4? Apr 04 $13 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on April 4? Apr 04 $2 $0 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on April 4? Apr 04 $15 −$1 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on April 4? Apr 04 $4 −$1 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on April 4? Apr 04 $2 −$2 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on April 3? Apr 04 $7 +$2 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on April 3? Apr 04 $2 $0 +19%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Ap Apr 04 $6 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on April 3? Apr 03 $19 −$3 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on April 3? Apr 03 $2 +$1 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on April 3? Apr 03 $13 −$1 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on April 3? Apr 03 $11 −$3 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on April 3? Apr 03 $4 −$4 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on April 2? Apr 02 $2 +$2 +60%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C on April 2? Apr 02 $5 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C or higher on April 2? Apr 02 $13 −$2 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 17? BUY No 51¢ $2 24h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 16? BUY No 59¢ $2 33h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 56¢ $2 34h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 59¢ $2 38h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 59¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 15? BUY No 11¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 15? BUY No 48¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? BUY No 54¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 59¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 14? BUY No 46¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? BUY No 45¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 13? BUY No 58¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? BUY No 48¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 12? BUY No 58¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? BUY No 59¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 12? BUY No 40¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 11? BUY No 40¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? BUY No 19¢ $2 6d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 11? BUY No 19¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY No 8¢ $2 6d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 10? BUY No 5¢ $2 6d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun BUY No 18¢ $2 7d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 10? BUY No 15¢ $2 7d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 10? BUY No 11¢ $2 7d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 9? BUY No 10¢ $2 7d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 7¢ $2 7d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 9? BUY No 7¢ $2 7d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 12¢ $2 7d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 9? BUY No 9¢ $2 7d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on April 4? SELL No 65¢ $1 73d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 726 history records