Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:13:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x340c…f130 crypto 118 markets active 2h ago coverage 223d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$653 (-2%) realized −$683 · open +$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate57%64W / 48L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$328per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$357now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$96
7 days−$96
14 days−$96
30 days−$96
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$720
weather 2% +$15
sports 1% −$81
other 0% −$63
politics 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -10.6% -19.1% 38% 38% -26.1%
≤30d 8 -10.6% -19.1% 38% 38% -26.1%
≤90d 8 -10.6% -19.1% 38% 38% -26.1%
all 112 -10.9% -19.4% 57% 30% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.4% 30% -11.6%
10% -27.1% 14% -20.0%
15% -34.1% 11% -27.8%
20% -40.6% 8% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$507) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$87 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

223d coverage
Net worth$357
Realized−$683
Unrealized+$30
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses64 / 48
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions5
Markets (closed)112 / 118
History coverage223d
Avg bet$328
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? Yes 40¢ 38¢ $120 $114 −$6 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? Yes 37¢ 31¢ $118 $100 −$19 (-16%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Yes 36¢ 100¢ $34 $94 +$60 (+175%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? Yes 37¢ 100¢ $18 $49 +$31 (+170%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? Yes 47¢ 0¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? Jun 15 $54 +$50 +93%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $54 +$22 +41%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $54 −$34 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $80 +$55 +69%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 14 $152 −$77 -51%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $54 −$4 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $41 −$9 -22%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 3? Mar 06 $8 −$8 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 3? Mar 03 $8 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 3? Mar 03 $5 +$3 +53%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 1? Mar 01 $31 −$26 -83%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on February 28? Feb 28 $327 −$265 -81%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 28? Feb 28 $190 +$106 +56%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 27? Feb 27 $181 +$43 +24%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 26? Feb 26 $147 +$28 +19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 25? Feb 25 $255 −$164 -64%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on February 25? Feb 24 $15 −$1 -8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on February 24? Feb 24 $204 −$7 -3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 24? Feb 24 $186 +$36 +19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 21? Feb 21 $528 −$486 -92%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 20? Feb 20 $1,138 +$105 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 20? Feb 20 $682 +$17 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 19? Feb 19 $541 +$120 +22%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 19? Feb 19 $1,054 +$49 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 18? Feb 18 $1,093 +$74 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 17? Feb 17 $917 +$136 +15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 17? Feb 17 $10 +$4 +45%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 17? Feb 16 $460 +$5 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 16? Feb 16 $826 +$47 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 15? Feb 15 $615 +$19 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 15? Feb 15 $1,728 −$35 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Feb 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 14? Feb 14 $4 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 14? Feb 13 $452 −$23 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Feb 13 $1 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Feb 13 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Feb 13 $3 −$2 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Feb 13 $3 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Feb 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 13? Feb 13 $602 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 13? Feb 13 $20 −$1 -5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 12? Feb 13 $747 +$28 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 12? Feb 12 $81 −$4 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on February 12? Feb 11 $11 −$9 -79%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 12? Feb 11 $12 −$10 -85%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 11? Feb 11 $285 +$34 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 11? Feb 11 $181 +$27 +15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 11? Feb 11 $150 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on February 11? Feb 11 $302 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $33 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 40¢ $41 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? SELL Yes 98¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $49 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $55 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 40¢ $82 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? SELL Yes 98¢ $93 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? SELL Yes 98¢ $54 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14 BUY 2¢ $3 12h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $22 13h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $8 13h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $7 13h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 47¢ $38 13h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $21 14h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 41¢ $21 14h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 41¢ $51 14h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $51 14h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? SELL Yes 99¢ $23 16h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? SELL Yes 99¢ $30 16h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? SELL Yes 99¢ $21 16h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? SELL Yes 99¢ $15 16h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 17h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? SELL Yes 18¢ $14 17h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 52¢ $50 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $357.15 · official $357.15 (match) · 1350 history records