Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:35:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x340c…1007 other 22 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (225 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$75 (-42%) realized +$1 · open −$76
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day225.0pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$93now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 57% −$50
other 36% −$26
politics 6% −$1
world 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-50.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -45.6% -50.8% 0% 0% -50.8%
≤30d 1 -45.6% -50.8% 0% 0% -50.8%
≤90d 1 -45.6% -50.8% 0% 0% -50.8%
all 1 -45.6% -50.8% 0% 0% -50.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover225.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -50.8% 0% -50.8%
10% ← realistic here -55.5% 0% -55.5%
15% -59.8% 0% -59.8%
20% -63.7% 0% -63.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -46% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -46% · $-wt -46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
10.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$93
Realized+$1
Unrealized−$76
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 1
Open positions21
Markets (closed)1 / 22
History coverage1d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day225.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $100 $50 −$50 (-50%)
Will Gold (GC) settle at >$6,200 in June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $36 $18 −$18 (-50%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+50%)
Will Donald Trump be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $3 −$1 (-25%)
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+75%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Discord’s market cap be between $15B and $20B at market close on IPO day? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Discord’s market cap be between $20B and $25B at market close on IPO day? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$2 (-50%)
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+25%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,000 (HIGH) in June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Apple release a MacBook with cellular connectivity by June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Kamala Harris announce a 2028 run for President by June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+25%)
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-25%)
Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+100%)
100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hope Scheppelman be the Republican nominee for CO-03? Jun 26 $1 $0 -46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 8m
Will Gold (GC) settle at >$6,200 in June? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 26m
Will Kamala Harris announce a 2028 run for President by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 37m
Will Kamala Harris announce a 2028 run for President by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 55m
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Kamala Harris announce a 2028 run for President by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Kamala Harris announce a 2028 run for President by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Kamala Harris announce a 2028 run for President by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93.49 · official $93.49 (match) · 225 history records