Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:08:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x340b…920c crypto 166 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (140 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$67 (-2%) realized −$67 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate36%60W / 106L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day140.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$393
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (140 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 166 -7.5% -16.3% 36% 34% -18.1%
≤30d 166 -7.5% -16.3% 36% 34% -18.1%
≤90d 166 -7.5% -16.3% 36% 34% -18.1%
all 166 -7.5% -16.3% 36% 34% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover140.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.3% 34% -18.1%
10% ← realistic here -24.3% 30% -25.9%
15% -31.6% 30% -33.1%
20% -38.3% 30% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 62% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$27 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$67
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses60 / 106
Open positions0
Markets (closed)166 / 166
History coverage4d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day140.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 166 Trades
no open positions (100 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $83 +$14 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $615 −$600 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $947 −$900 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 18 $107 +$1,406 +1319%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 18 $70 −$68 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $184 −$176 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 18 $104 +$79 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 18 $62 +$41 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 18 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 18 $27 +$17 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 18 $36 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 18 $29 −$4 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 18 $44 −$10 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 18 $47 +$28 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 18 $59 −$18 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$2 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$1 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$4 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +147%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$3 -60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 57¢ $54 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $42 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $43 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $41 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $615 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $221 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $309 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $417 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $334 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $1,178 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $107 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $70 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $184 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $182 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $23 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $15 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 515 history records