Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:20:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x340a…cfa2 crypto 957 markets active 1d ago coverage 258d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$550 (-9%) realized −$550 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate54%515W / 442L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$85
14 days−$502
30 days−$391
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$320
other 7% −$182
politics 6% −$187
world 3% +$40
culture 2% $0
sports 1% +$18
economics 1% −$12
finance 1% −$4
tech 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 133 -12.5% -20.8% 58% 52% -20.8%
≤30d 668 -13.8% -22.0% 50% 44% -22.8%
≤90d 776 -9.6% -18.2% 52% 45% -21.8%
all 957 -7.3% -16.1% 54% 44% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 44% -19.1%
10% -24.1% 36% -26.8%
15% -31.5% 30% -33.9%
20% -38.2% 25% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

258d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$550
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses515 / 442
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)957 / 957
History coverage258d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 957 Trades
no open positions (103 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +52%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$2 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$4 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +45%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 13, 2026? Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$6 +114%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 44¢ $3 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2805 history records