Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:03:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
34 0x3409…667a other 27 markets active 12h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$717 (-20%) realized −$163 · open −$554
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate38%6W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$132per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$1,432now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$41
7 days+$48
14 days+$48
30 days+$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$875
sports 19% +$404
crypto 1% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +4.7% -5.2% 38% 31% -6.3%
≤30d 16 +4.7% -5.2% 38% 31% -6.3%
≤90d 16 +4.7% -5.2% 38% 31% -6.3%
all 16 +4.7% -5.2% 38% 31% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.2% 31% -6.3%
10% -14.3% 31% -15.2%
15% -22.6% 31% -23.4%
20% -30.2% 31% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 49% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +31% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$46 · ×1.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$1,432
Realized−$163
Unrealized−$554
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses6 / 10
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions9
Markets (closed)16 / 27
History coverage14d
Avg bet$132
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,316 $798 −$518 (-39%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $117 +$17 (+17%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $110 +$10 (+10%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $86 −$14 (-14%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $83 −$17 (-17%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $76 −$24 (-24%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $64 $53 −$11 (-17%)
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $7 $5 −$2 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$92 +180%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $86 +$64 +74%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $103 −$16 -15%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $102 −$10 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 AND Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $102 +$148 +145%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $103 +$7 +7%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $103 −$3 -3%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $192 −$192 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $94 +$102 +109%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 AND Will United States win Jun 13 $51 +$99 +194%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $103 −$7 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 44¢ $92 12h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $44 12h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $51 19h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 20h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 82¢ $151 22h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $86 22h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $87 22h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $101 34h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $92 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 35h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $102 44h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 44h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $111 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $110 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 AND Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY 40¢ $102 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $99 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $192 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $196 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $94 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? AND Wi BUY 35¢ $102 3d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 AND Will United States win BUY 33¢ $51 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $96 4d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $66 4d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 4d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 4d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 4d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,432.28 · official $1,522.28 · 48 history records