Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T01:18:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

34 0x3409…3361 sports 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$152 (-36%) realized −$151 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip

Net edge-34%after slip

Net WR31%break-even

Win rate31%5W / 11L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$22per market

Trades / day2.0pace

Fees−$4est.

Kalshi-fit68%portable

Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$5

7 days+$11

14 days−$71

30 days−$71

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +31%

net ROI/market (all)-34.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	9	+17.0%	+5.8%	44%	44%	-5.6%
≤30d	16	-27.2%	-34.1%	31%	31%	-29.3%
≤90d	16	-27.2%	-34.1%	31%	31%	-29.3%
all	16	-27.2%	-34.1%	31%	31%	-29.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-34.1%	31%	-29.3%
10%	-40.4%	25%	-36.1%
15%	-46.2%	25%	-42.3%
20%	-51.5%	25%	-47.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 43% · top 2 67% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -27% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -38% → late -16% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$26 vs −$18 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.65 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage

Net worth$29

Realized−$151

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)31%

Wins / losses5 / 11

Est. fees paid−$4

Open positions1

Markets (closed)16 / 19

History coverage11d

Avg bet$22

Trades / day2.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 16 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	41¢	40¢	$30	$29	−$1 (-4%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Jun 29	$30	−$5	-18%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) AND South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5	Jun 28	$33	+$31	+94%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	Jun 28	$49	−$49	-99%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5	Jun 28	$25	−$25	-98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 28	$25	+$17	+67%
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score	Jun 28	$20	+$26	+129%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 27	$20	−$20	-99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 27	$20	−$20	-100%
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06	Jun 27	$20	+$56	+281%
Spread: Germany (-1.5)	Jun 20	$18	−$17	-98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$1	$0	+12%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5	Jun 19	$10	−$10	-98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score	Jun 19	$15	−$15	-98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score	Jun 18	$15	−$15	-99%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw?	Jun 18	$5	−$5	-97%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5	Jun 18	$20	−$20	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	41¢	$31	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	SELL	36¢	$25	3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY	42¢	$30	11h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) AND South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5	SELL	99¢	$64	28h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	59¢	$49	32h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) AND South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5	BUY	50¢	$33	32h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	42¢	$25	32h
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	43¢	$20	2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	54¢	$20	2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	59¢	$25	2d
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06	SELL	99¢	$76	2d
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06	BUY	25¢	$20	2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	17¢	$20	2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	BUY	58¢	$51	9d
Spread: Germany (-1.5)	BUY Germany	42¢	$18	9d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	35¢	$10	10d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$1	10d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	46¢	$15	10d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND Will United States win on 202	BUY	37¢	$15	10d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	54¢	$15	11d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw?	BUY Yes	6¢	$5	11d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	29¢	$20	11d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.90 · official $29.63 (match) · 26 history records