Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:18:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

34
0x3409…6839
sports · 119 markets active 1h ago
1.5score
−$321 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$311 · open −$10
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$619
Realized−$311
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses47 / 59
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions13
Markets (closed)106 / 119
History coverage581d
Avg bet$223
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 13 History 106 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$17
14 days+$18
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 46¢ $95 $94 −$1 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $90 $89 −$1 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 44¢ $89 $88 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Brazil 32¢ 32¢ $66 $65 −$1 (-2%)
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $52 $51 −$1 (-2%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Under 41¢ 42¢ $41 $42 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Qatar 41¢ 40¢ $41 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Yes 39¢ 36¢ $39 $36 −$2 (-6%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $35 $33 −$2 (-6%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Draw at halftime? Yes 31¢ 32¢ $31 $32 +$0 (+2%)
Morocco leading at halftime? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $14 $12 −$2 (-11%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on March 25? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $17 +$10 +57%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $30 −$13 -44%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $21 +$35 +170%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? Jun 01 $405 $0 -0%
Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026? May 22 $165 $0 -0%
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch? May 17 $91 +$2 +2%
Over $10M committed to the Printr public sale? May 05 $294 $0 -0%
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 16 $809 +$70 +9%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 02 $1,080 +$180 +17%
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? Apr 01 $32 +$1 +4%
Will EdgeX launch a token by March 31, 2026? Mar 29 $5 −$1 -27%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 29 $15 −$6 -41%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on March 25? Mar 25 $18 −$16 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 25? Mar 25 $15 −$13 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 25? Mar 25 $16 −$8 -51%
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 25 $910 +$24 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on March 25? Mar 24 $12 −$12 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Mar 23 $1,281 +$5 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on March 22? Mar 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on March 22? Mar 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on March 23? Mar 23 $43 −$23 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 23? Mar 23 $19 +$52 +274%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 23? Mar 22 $35 +$3 +9%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Mar 22 $10 +$41 +415%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 22 $276 +$3 +1%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Mar 22 $40 −$38 -95%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Mar 22 $40 +$52 +130%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Mar 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on March 22? Mar 22 $33 −$33 -100%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs G2 Esports (+2.5) Mar 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs G2 Esports (+1.5) Mar 22 $286 −$286 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 22? Mar 22 $80 +$57 +71%
Spread: Gonzaga Bulldogs (-6.5) Mar 22 $70 +$59 +85%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Mar 22 $357 +$66 +19%
LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports - Game 1 Winner Mar 21 $115 −$15 -13%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs JD Gaming (+2.5) Mar 21 $91 −$43 -47%
First Blood in Game 1? Mar 21 $1 $0 -0%
LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports - Game 3 Winner Mar 21 $39 +$159 +407%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Mar 21 $104 −$65 -62%
LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports - Game 2 Winner Mar 21 $16 +$84 +524%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on March 20? Mar 21 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: LYON vs JD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Mar 21 $14 −$14 -100%
LoL: LYON vs JD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Mar 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Game Handicap: JDG (-1.5) vs LYON (+1.5) Mar 21 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: LYON vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Group B Mar 21 $109 −$26 -24%
Game Handicap: JDG (-2.5) vs LYON (+2.5) Mar 21 $107 −$107 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on March 20? Mar 20 $28 +$21 +75%
LoL: LYON vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Mar 20 $30 +$20 +66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 49% +$282
sports 22% −$313
crypto 17% −$245
politics 5% −$66
world 5% −$86
weather 2% +$107
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $45 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $48 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $45 1h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 32¢ $33 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $17 1h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $27 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 1h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $40 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Qatar 41¢ $42 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $42 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 31¢ $32 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $49 2h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $45 2h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 32¢ $1 3h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 32¢ $33 3h
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 15¢ $16 4h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $46 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $18 4h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $27 4h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 63¢ $17 20h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 29¢ $17 20h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 22h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 22h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $30 22h
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $55 11d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $21 12d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $405 12d
Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 66¢ $1 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -46.8% -51.8% 25% 25% -35.0%
≤30d 8 -1.8% -11.2% 38% 25% -7.2%
≤90d 61 +0.9% -8.7% 41% 26% -10.3%
all 106 +2.3% -7.4% 44% 25% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 25% -10.6%
10% -16.3% 24% -19.2%
15% -24.4% 18% -27.0%
20% -31.8% 15% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $619.37 · official $619.37 (match) · 608 history records