Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:36:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x3408…9b17 world 66 markets active 0h ago coverage 520d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate37%24W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$7
14 days+$6
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% +$8
other 33% −$7
politics 17% −$2
sports 9% $0
economics 4% $0
finance 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +2.7% -7.1% 45% 9% -8.1%
≤30d 22 +1.4% -8.3% 41% 5% -8.8%
≤90d 63 +0.2% -9.3% 38% 2% -9.2%
all 65 -1.5% -10.9% 37% 2% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 2% -9.5%
10% -19.4% 2% -18.2%
15% -27.2% 0% -26.1%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

520d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses24 / 41
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)65 / 66
History coverage520d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 73¢ 76¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $151 −$1 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $7 +$2 +23%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $40 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $49 +$1 +2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $14 −$1 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $41 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $52 +$3 +5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $57 +$3 +5%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $15 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 05 $51 −$1 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $46 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $46 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $15 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 29 $39 +$2 +6%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $85 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $31 $0 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 26 $14 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $49 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 18 $82 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 15 $6 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 14 $3 $0 -4%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $45 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $51 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $49 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $46 +$1 +2%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $42 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $4 $0 -4%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $49 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $72 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $46 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $45 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $7 $0 -1%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 21 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $10 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $32 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 14 $24 −$1 -3%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $147 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 12 $3 $0 +4%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 12 $6 −$1 -9%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $69 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $3 $0 -4%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $62 $0 +0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $24 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $20 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 09 $46 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $5 5m
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $46 6m
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $52 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 6h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 6h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 6h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 6h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $7 10h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $9 28h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $9 28h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $3 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $36 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $0 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $3 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $3 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $6 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $28 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $45 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $5 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 91¢ $12 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 91¢ $37 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $15 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $11 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $12 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.75 · official $0.00 (match) · 276 history records