Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:01:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
34 0x3407…c274 crypto 281 markets active 1h ago coverage 241d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$46 (+0%) realized +$46 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate97%270W / 9L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$192now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$3
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% +$55
other 17% −$6
economics 9% −$3
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 23 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 61 -1.5% -10.9% 97% 0% -9.4%
all 279 +0.1% -9.4% 97% 1% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 1% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.93 per $1 lost it wins $2.93
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

241d coverage
Net worth$192
Realized+$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses270 / 9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)279 / 281
History coverage241d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 279 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $151 $151 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Solana be above $20 on June 17? Jun 17 $41 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 16? Jun 16 $151 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on June 15? Jun 15 $90 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on June 15? Jun 15 $60 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 12? Jun 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 11? Jun 11 $91 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on June 10? Jun 10 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 9? Jun 09 $42 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 8? Jun 08 $48 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $112 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $85 on June 6? Jun 07 $78 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 6? Jun 06 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $189 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $189 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on June 3? Jun 03 $189 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 May 25-31? Jun 01 $169 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 28? May 28 $169 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 26? May 26 $168 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 May 18-24? May 25 $168 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on May 23? May 24 $168 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 20? May 20 $168 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 19? May 19 $168 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,700 and $2,800 on May 17? May 17 $168 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 15? May 15 $167 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on May 10? May 10 $177 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 8? May 08 $177 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on May 7? May 07 $177 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,700 and $2,800 on April 29? May 02 $187 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 April 20-26? Apr 27 $187 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on April 25? Apr 25 $187 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,800 on April 23? Apr 23 $187 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 20? Apr 20 $186 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 April 13-19? Apr 20 $186 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 17? Apr 18 $186 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on April 16? Apr 17 $186 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 15? Apr 16 $186 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 14? Apr 15 $186 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 13? Apr 14 $185 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 April 6-12? Apr 13 $185 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 11? Apr 11 $185 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 8? Apr 10 $185 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 7? Apr 07 $185 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 6? Apr 06 $184 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 5? Apr 05 $184 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 2? Apr 04 $184 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on April 1? Apr 01 $184 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? Apr 01 $184 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on March 30? Mar 31 $184 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on March 29? Mar 29 $183 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $41 1h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $151 23h
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $151 47h
Will the price of Solana be above $20 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $41 4d
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $90 6d
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $60 7d
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $40 7d
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $43 8d
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $48 9d
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $42 10d
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $100 10d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $48 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $112 11d
Will Solana reach $85 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $78 11d
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $112 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $189 13d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $189 13d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $189 16d
Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 May 25-31? BUY No 100¢ $169 18d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $169 21d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $168 22d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 May 18-24? BUY No 100¢ $168 23d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on May 23? BUY No 100¢ $168 27d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 20? BUY No 100¢ $116 28d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 20? BUY No 100¢ $7 28d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 20? BUY No 100¢ $22 28d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 20? BUY No 100¢ $23 28d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $168 30d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,700 and $2,800 on May 17? BUY No 100¢ $168 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $167 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $191.76 · official $191.76 (match) · 650 history records