Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:01:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x3407…c3eb world 139 markets active 13h ago coverage 593d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$13,505 (-5%) realized −$16,242 · open +$2,737
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate54%74W / 64L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,105per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$562est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$12,250now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$5,540
14 days−$5,237
30 days−$7,842
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 36% −$17,151
world 28% +$16,680
sports 18% −$3,575
other 15% −$5,061
finance 1% −$2,377
crypto 1% −$1,184
tech 0% −$901
culture 0% +$81
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -23.8% -31.1% 36% 21% -19.5%
≤30d 48 -23.9% -31.2% 35% 23% -17.3%
≤90d 67 -23.9% -31.1% 40% 30% -10.9%
all 138 -9.4% -18.0% 54% 39% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.0% 39% -14.6%
10% -25.9% 21% -22.8%
15% -33.0% 16% -30.2%
20% -39.6% 9% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$2,463) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$591 vs −$937 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

593d coverage
Net worth$12,250
Realized−$16,242
Unrealized+$2,737
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses74 / 64
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$562
Open positions1
Markets (closed)138 / 139
History coverage593d
Avg bet$2,105
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $9,513 $12,250 +$2,737 (+29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,510 −$277 -11%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2,326 −$1,063 -46%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $427 −$120 -28%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $547 −$323 -59%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $6,964 −$1,837 -26%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2,224 −$1,443 -65%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $4,669 +$331 +7%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $979 −$882 -90%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $3,517 −$290 -8%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $367 −$360 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $459 −$450 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $3,669 +$331 +9%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2,066 −$94 -4%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $441 +$948 +215%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $5,592 +$402 +7%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $3,247 +$698 +22%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $721 −$89 -12%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1,430 −$585 -41%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1,353 −$627 -46%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $442 −$233 -53%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $763 +$36 +5%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,237 −$1,230 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $2,463 +$534 +22%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $785 −$165 -21%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $1,805 +$193 +11%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $843 −$148 -18%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $1,377 +$123 +9%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $2,013 −$241 -12%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $76 −$6 -8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $150 −$17 -11%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 12 $4,240 +$705 +17%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2,083 +$417 +20%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $279 +$221 +79%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $4,646 +$303 +6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 01 $2,002 −$423 -21%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Jun 01 $1,403 −$449 -32%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? May 30 $55 −$14 -26%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 29 $1,328 −$1,077 -81%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Stefanos Tsitsipas May 28 $1,393 +$587 +42%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $841 +$935 +111%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? May 23 $202 −$102 -50%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? May 23 $989 −$673 -68%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 23 $2,127 −$1,299 -61%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 23 $361 −$304 -84%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 23 $4,020 −$2,220 -55%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 23 $5,741 +$1,523 +26%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $2,083 +$1,229 +59%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 22 $357 −$317 -89%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 17 $6,455 +$2,701 +42%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 13 $3,052 +$679 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $2,341 12h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1,694 16h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $2,647 30h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $832 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 75¢ $2,233 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $402 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 34¢ $167 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 62¢ $306 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $400 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 82¢ $412 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 44¢ $433 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 45¢ $664 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 23¢ $225 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 83¢ $417 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 87¢ $437 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 88¢ $442 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $427 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $547 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $2,326 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 46¢ $1,866 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 55¢ $3,255 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 20¢ $781 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 71¢ $358 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 34¢ $173 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $269 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 83¢ $834 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $279 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 84¢ $422 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $289 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $864 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,250.00 · official $12,250.00 (match) · 844 history records