Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:20:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x3407…f5be crypto 47 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (65 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$96 (+2%) realized +$57 · open +$39
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate70%30W / 13L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day65.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$319
other 2% −$10
sports 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (65 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +4.7% -5.3% 70% 56% -2.7%
≤30d 43 +4.7% -5.3% 70% 56% -2.7%
≤90d 43 +4.7% -5.3% 70% 56% -2.7%
all 43 +4.7% -5.3% 70% 56% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover65.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.3% 56% -2.7%
10% ← realistic here -14.4% 30% -12.0%
15% -22.6% 19% -20.5%
20% -30.2% 7% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$20 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.06 per $1 lost it wins $2.06
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$57
Unrealized+$39
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses30 / 13
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)43 / 47
History coverage2d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day65.0
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Up 0¢ 50¢ $0 $39 +$39 (+0%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 68¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $204 +$31 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $102 −$73 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $282 +$42 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $41 +$14 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $102 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $523 −$122 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $163 +$28 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $316 +$30 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $263 +$60 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $242 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $184 +$69 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $32 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $303 +$14 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $122 +$50 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $61 +$8 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $46 +$26 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$26 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $101 +$17 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $86 +$14 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $66 +$20 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $61 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $41 +$15 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$6 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $58 −$5 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $42 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $17 +$8 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $14 +$9 +67%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $13 −$8 -58%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 15 $4 $0 -3%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 15 $5 $0 -2%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $5 $0 -4%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 15 $10 $0 -4%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 15 $1 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $51 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $117 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $102 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $117 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $51 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $51 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 21¢ $29 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $102 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $221 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $51 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $51 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $241 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $41 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $54 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $41 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $11 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $103 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $102 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $55 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $211 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $319 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $134 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $163 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $41 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $191 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $163 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $346 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $25 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $132 39m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.35 · official $7.50 · 143 history records