Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:28:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x3407…ea50 crypto 1504 markets active 0h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$51 (-1%) realized −$67 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate92%1380W / 120L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day44.4pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$16
14 days+$18
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% +$28
weather 17% −$101
other 6% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 642 -0.5% -10.0% 97% 5% -10.0%
≤30d 1404 -0.4% -9.9% 94% 13% -9.7%
≤90d 1500 -1.3% -10.7% 92% 17% -10.3%
all 1500 -1.3% -10.7% 92% 17% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.7% 17% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -19.2% 9% -18.9%
15% -27.0% 4% -26.7%
20% -34.2% 1% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$5 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized−$67
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses1380 / 120
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1500 / 1504
History coverage34d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day44.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1500 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-8%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-8%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-15%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Up 90¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Up 95¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on May 22? No 72¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 25? No 54¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on May 25? No 58¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 14? No 76¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 12? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Down 98¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Up 93¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 26? No 58¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on May 21? No 73¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 25? No 72¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 21? No 77¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on May 26? No 70¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Down 88¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on May 26? No 74¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on May 25? No 72¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 26? No 68¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on May 23? No 67¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Down 93¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Down 87¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +28%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 13m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 14m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 44m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 59m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 5h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 6h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 8h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.80 · official $75.80 (match) · 2922 history records