Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:20:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x3406…6ce0 other 135 markets active 2h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$228 (-7%) realized −$228 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate6%8W / 126L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$13
14 days−$34
30 days−$109
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% −$101
politics 20% −$27
world 18% −$23
finance 10% −$34
tech 9% −$56
culture 3% −$5
economics 2% −$2
sports 1% −$7
crypto 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -6.4% -15.3% 25% 0% -14.7%
≤30d 53 -8.8% -17.5% 6% 0% -17.8%
≤90d 129 -8.4% -17.2% 6% 1% -16.7%
all 134 -8.3% -17.0% 6% 1% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 1% -16.5%
10% -24.9% 0% -24.5%
15% -32.2% 0% -31.8%
20% -38.8% 0% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$228
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses8 / 126
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)134 / 135
History coverage93d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? No 19¢ 18¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will National Party win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House Jun 23 $28 −$1 -5%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technoc Jun 23 $27 −$4 -16%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 22 $11 $0 +2%
Will Tabi launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $10 −$2 -19%
Will Mexico reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $6 $0 +6%
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 19 $28 −$1 -5%
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $13 $0 -3%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.80 in June? Jun 18 $6 −$2 -28%
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? Jun 18 $26 −$1 -4%
Will Juan Branco be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential ele Jun 17 $17 $0 +1%
Will Trump meet with Ahmed al-Sharaa in 2026? Jun 17 $16 $0 -1%
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? Jun 17 $42 −$1 -3%
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $168 in June? Jun 16 $8 $0 -3%
Will Denis Bećirović be the Bosniak Presidency Member of Bosnia and He Jun 15 $28 $0 -2%
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? Jun 15 $26 −$1 -4%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $35 −$1 -2%
Will Granit Xhaka score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $5 $0 -5%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? Jun 14 $8 −$2 -24%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? Jun 14 $6 −$1 -12%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 12 $41 −$1 -3%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 12 $34 $0 -1%
Will Frenkie de Jong score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $16 −$1 -5%
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Jun 11 $11 $0 -2%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $690 in June? Jun 10 $2 $0 -1%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.60 in June? Jun 10 $39 −$2 -5%
US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 10 $2 $0 -6%
Will Oura's market cap be between $7.5B and $10B at market close on IP Jun 10 $10 −$1 -14%
Will Morgan Stanley (MS) Q2 investment banking revenue be above $2.125 Jun 09 $36 −$10 -26%
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.6B? Jun 09 $35 −$4 -13%
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.85B? Jun 07 $39 −$4 -10%
Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Con Jun 07 $31 −$4 -12%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? Jun 06 $24 −$10 -42%
Will the next model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1440? Jun 06 $41 −$5 -12%
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 06 $36 −$14 -38%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? Jun 05 $38 −$1 -4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 05 $22 −$2 -11%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 04 $35 −$4 -11%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in June? Jun 04 $30 −$3 -10%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $82 in June? Jun 04 $16 $0 -3%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in June? Jun 03 $28 −$1 -5%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.80 in June? Jun 03 $6 −$1 -11%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 02 $25 −$7 -27%
US x China tariff agreement by December 31? Jun 02 $36 $0 -1%
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? May 31 $22 $0 +0%
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri May 29 $16 −$1 -9%
Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang May 29 $8 −$1 -9%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? May 27 $36 −$1 -2%
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 27 $17 $0 -3%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $280 in May? May 26 $10 $0 -1%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $180 in May? May 26 $25 −$7 -26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will National Party win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House SELL No 53¢ $26 1h
Will National Party win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House BUY No 55¢ $28 1h
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technoc SELL Yes 24¢ $7 3h
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technoc BUY Yes 30¢ $8 4h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 37¢ $11 31h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 36¢ $4 31h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 36¢ $7 31h
Will Tabi launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $8 3d
Will Tabi launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 3d
Will Mexico reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 3d
Will Mexico reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 3d
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian SELL No 53¢ $26 4d
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian BUY No 55¢ $28 4d
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 63¢ $12 4d
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $13 4d
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.80 in June? SELL Yes $4 5d
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.80 in June? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 5d
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? SELL No 52¢ $26 5d
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? BUY No 53¢ $26 5d
Will Juan Branco be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential ele SELL No 84¢ $17 5d
Will Juan Branco be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential ele BUY No 83¢ $17 5d
Will Trump meet with Ahmed al-Sharaa in 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $16 6d
Will Trump meet with Ahmed al-Sharaa in 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $16 6d
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? SELL Yes 83¢ $41 6d
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? BUY Yes 85¢ $42 6d
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $168 in June? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 7d
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $168 in June? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 7d
Will Denis Bećirović be the Bosniak Presidency Member of Bosnia and He SELL No 56¢ $28 8d
Will Denis Bećirović be the Bosniak Presidency Member of Bosnia and He BUY No 56¢ $28 8d
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $25 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.14 · official $0.00 (match) · 432 history records