Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:32:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
34 0x3405…4283 politics 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%1W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% −$1
other 32% −$1
crypto 11% −$1
economics 10% −$1
tech 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.3% -10.7% 0% 0% -10.7%
≤30d 5 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 14 -0.2% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.7%
all 17 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses1 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage100d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 17 $101 −$1 -1%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $101 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $206 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $102 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $102 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 17 $102 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 16 $102 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 14 $103 −$1 -1%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $103 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $104 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 13 $104 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $208 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $104 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 22 $104 $0 +0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 16 $104 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 13 $104 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 10 $105 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 98¢ $100 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $101 12h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $101 12d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $101 12d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $101 18d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $102 19d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $102 21d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $102 21d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $102 26d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $102 27d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $102 31d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $102 32d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $102 32d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $102 33d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $102 34d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $103 35d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $103 40d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $103 41d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $104 60d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $104 60d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $104 61d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $104 62d
Netanyahu out by April 30? SELL No 99¢ $104 65d
Netanyahu out by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $104 66d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $104 71d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $104 71d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $104 75d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $104 75d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $104 77d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $104 78d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 54 history records