Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:49:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
34 0x3404…3a93 sports 80 markets active 2h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,984 (+10%) realized +$2,078 · open −$94
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate44%34W / 43L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$250per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$237est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$356now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$380
7 days+$424
14 days+$458
30 days+$1,442
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$1,356
other 35% +$236
politics 1% −$113
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +71.4% +55.1% 75% 50% +12.1%
≤30d 60 -2.3% -11.6% 47% 35% -0.5%
≤90d 77 -11.0% -19.5% 44% 32% -1.5%
all 77 -11.0% -19.5% 44% 32% -1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.5% 32% -1.5%
10% -27.2% 23% -11.0%
15% -34.2% 16% -19.6%
20% -40.7% 6% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -27% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$29 · ×2.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.28 per $1 lost it wins $2.28
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$356
Realized+$2,078
Unrealized−$94
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses34 / 43
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$237
Open positions2
Markets (closed)77 / 80
History coverage34d
Avg bet$250
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Under 55¢ 58¢ $300 $319 +$19 (+6%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 39¢ 10¢ $150 $37 −$113 (-76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brescia: Elizara Yaneva vs Ekaterine Gorgodze Jun 19 $202 +$5 +3%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 19 $1,398 +$374 +27%
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 16 $20 +$54 +262%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 13 $152 −$9 -6%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $41 −$40 -98%
Tucuman: Federico Coria vs Andrea Collarini Jun 11 $200 −$4 -2%
ITF Cuiaba: Sofia Cohen Perovani vs Rebeca Pereira Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Tucuman: Segundo Goity Zapico vs Federico Coria Jun 10 $20 +$34 +166%
Bratislava: Vitaliy Sachko vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 10 $202 +$84 +41%
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 10 $499 −$29 -6%
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs Jun 10 $251 −$26 -10%
Cattolica: Federico Bondioli vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Jun 09 $51 +$26 +50%
Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Granollers/Zeballos vs Bolelli/Vavassori Jun 05 $487 +$53 +11%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $102 −$28 -28%
Tyler: Timo Legout vs Andres Andrade Jun 02 $102 −$14 -14%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $58 +$21 +37%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 01 $201 −$4 -2%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Camila Osorio May 30 $400 −$19 -5%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $913 −$158 -17%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 29 $1,726 −$56 -3%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Rafael Jodar May 29 $201 +$18 +9%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $103 −$65 -63%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Yibing Wu May 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo May 28 $102 +$42 +41%
Roland Garros ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Moise Kouame May 28 $121 −$13 -11%
Roland Garros WTA: Hailey Baptiste vs Xiyu Wang May 27 $166 +$43 +26%
Roland Garros ATP: Alejandro Tabilo vs Valentin Vacherot May 27 $501 +$120 +24%
Roland Garros ATP: Mariano Navone vs Jakub Mensik May 27 $305 +$57 +19%
Roland Garros ATP: Sebastian Baez vs Roman Andres Burruchaga May 26 $1,107 +$21 +2%
Roland Garros ATP: Martin Landaluce vs Juan Carlos Prado May 26 $456 −$5 -1%
Roland Garros ATP: Cameron Norrie vs Adolfo Vallejo May 26 $100 +$13 +13%
Roland Garros ATP: Thomas Faurel vs Valentin Vacherot May 26 $15 −$15 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Claire Liu vs Moyuka Uchijima May 26 $101 +$22 +21%
Vicenza: Tommaso Compagnucci vs Gonzalo Bueno May 26 $51 −$5 -11%
Roland Garros ATP: Tallon Griekspoor vs Matteo Arnaldi May 26 $202 −$73 -36%
Roland Garros ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Gael Monfils May 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Roman Safiullin May 25 $488 +$156 +32%
Roland Garros ATP: Thanasi Kokkinakis vs Terence Atmane May 25 $244 +$514 +210%
Roland Garros ATP: Marton Fucsovics vs Matteo Berrettini May 25 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-05-31? May 24 $305 +$16 +5%
Roland Garros WTA: Magdalena Frech vs Gabriela Ruse May 24 $101 −$18 -18%
Roland Garros WTA: Tereza Valentova vs Magda Linette May 24 $202 +$37 +18%
Roland Garros ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Damir Dzumhur May 24 $566 −$52 -9%
Roland Garros WTA: Anhelina Kalinina vs Diane Parry May 24 $102 +$1 +1%
Roland Garros ATP: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Thiago Agustin Tirante May 24 $11 −$11 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Kyrian Jacquet vs Marco Trungelliti May 24 $14 −$14 -99%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $81 +$7 +9%
Roland Garros ATP: Completed Match: Stan Wawrinka vs Arthur Fils May 23 $10 +$5 +46%
Set Handicap: Fils (-2.5) vs Wawrinka (+2.5) May 22 $51 −$6 -12%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Tom Gentzsch vs Roman Safiullin May 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brescia: Elizara Yaneva vs Ekaterine Gorgodze SELL Elizara Yaneva 75¢ $207 1h
Brescia: Elizara Yaneva vs Ekaterine Gorgodze BUY Elizara Yaneva 72¢ $202 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 31¢ $1,773 10h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 26¢ $499 11h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 24¢ $200 11h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 24¢ $188 11h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 22¢ $512 11h
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis BUY Jerome Kym 27¢ $20 2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $304 3d
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 AND Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2 BUY 32¢ $10 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 47¢ $143 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $152 6d
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz BUY Martin Landaluce 33¢ $41 7d
Tucuman: Federico Coria vs Andrea Collarini SELL Andrea Collarini 63¢ $195 7d
Tucuman: Federico Coria vs Andrea Collarini BUY Andrea Collarini 63¢ $99 8d
Tucuman: Federico Coria vs Andrea Collarini BUY Andrea Collarini 63¢ $101 8d
ITF Cuiaba: Sofia Cohen Perovani vs Rebeca Pereira SELL Sofia Cohen Perovani 0¢ $0 8d
ITF Cuiaba: Sofia Cohen Perovani vs Rebeca Pereira BUY Sofia Cohen Perovani 12¢ $10 8d
Tucuman: Segundo Goity Zapico vs Federico Coria SELL Segundo Goity Zapico 59¢ $54 8d
Tucuman: Segundo Goity Zapico vs Federico Coria BUY Segundo Goity Zapico 23¢ $10 8d
Tucuman: Segundo Goity Zapico vs Federico Coria BUY Segundo Goity Zapico 20¢ $10 8d
Bratislava: Vitaliy Sachko vs Thanasi Kokkinakis SELL Vitaliy Sachko 100¢ $285 8d
Bratislava: Vitaliy Sachko vs Thanasi Kokkinakis BUY Vitaliy Sachko 70¢ $101 9d
Bratislava: Vitaliy Sachko vs Thanasi Kokkinakis BUY Vitaliy Sachko 70¢ $101 9d
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 41¢ $470 9d
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs SELL Zizou Bergs 84¢ $225 9d
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs BUY Zizou Bergs 93¢ $251 9d
Cattolica: Federico Bondioli vs Carlo Alberto Caniato SELL Carlo Alberto Caniato 47¢ $77 9d
Cattolica: Federico Bondioli vs Carlo Alberto Caniato BUY Carlo Alberto Caniato 30¢ $51 9d
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 42¢ $499 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $355.63 · official $365.63 · 255 history records