trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? | Yes | 55¢ | 28¢ | $26,134 | $13,484 | −$12,650 (-48%) |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 17¢ | 17¢ | $6,812 | $6,752 | −$60 (-1%) |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 15¢ | 16¢ | $5,803 | $6,390 | +$587 (+10%) |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 10¢ | 11¢ | $4,156 | $4,335 | +$180 (+4%) |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 8¢ | 9¢ | $3,361 | $3,418 | +$57 (+2%) |
| Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? | Yes | 47¢ | 32¢ | $865 | $585 | −$280 (-32%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? | Jun 12 | $11,088 | +$7,138 | +64% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? | Jun 12 | $11,479 | −$1,290 | -11% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? | Jun 12 | $993 | −$266 | -27% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? | Jun 12 | $1,164 | +$286 | +25% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? | Jun 12 | $761 | −$329 | -43% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? | Jun 12 | $208 | −$4 | -2% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? | Jun 12 | $9 | −$2 | -19% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? | Jun 12 | $9 | $0 | -2% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? | Jun 12 | $363 | −$74 | -20% |
| Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup | Jun 12 | $123 | −$42 | -34% |
| Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 12 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Jun 07 | $27,817 | +$1,012 | +4% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | Jun 05 | $10,050 | +$4,574 | +46% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Jun 05 | $1,969 | +$656 | +33% |
| Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup | Jun 05 | $1 | $0 | +10% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | Jun 01 | $28,503 | −$28,503 | -100% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Jun 01 | $13,422 | +$11,408 | +85% |
| Will Poland win on 2026-05-31? | Jun 01 | $1,006 | −$1,006 | -100% |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? | May 31 | $2,508 | −$2,508 | -100% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | May 26 | $20,000 | +$8,646 | +43% |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? | May 25 | $3,549 | −$3,499 | -99% |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | May 24 | $51 | −$3 | -6% |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | May 23 | $3,500 | −$2,765 | -79% |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? | May 23 | $1,600 | −$1,577 | -99% |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7? | May 23 | $200 | −$15 | -8% |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15? | May 23 | $1,000 | −$12 | -1% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | May 22 | $21 | −$1 | -7% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 12 | -13.8% | -22.0% | 25% | 17% | +1.2% |
| ≤30d | 27 | -20.2% | -27.8% | 30% | 22% | -14.8% |
| ≤90d | 27 | -20.2% | -27.8% | 30% | 22% | -14.8% |
| all | 27 | -20.2% | -27.8% | 30% | 22% | -14.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -27.8% | 22% | -14.8% |
| 10% | -34.7% | 22% | -22.9% |
| 15% ← realistic here | -41.0% | 15% | -30.4% |
| 20% | -46.8% | 7% | -37.2% |