Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T12:48:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
34 0x3401…979b world 13 markets active 0h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$64 (-3%) realized −$64 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate23%3W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$161per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% −$3
sports 26% −$59
other 6% −$2
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-37.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.4% -9.2% 50% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 3 -0.6% -10.0% 33% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 13 -31.1% -37.7% 23% 0% -12.3%
all 13 -31.1% -37.7% 23% 0% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.7% 0% -12.3%
10% -43.7% 0% -20.7%
15% -49.1% 0% -28.4%
20% -54.1% 0% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 87% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$14 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$64
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses3 / 10
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage87d
Avg bet$161
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? Jun 22 $356 +$4 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by September 30, 2026? Jun 22 $352 −$1 -0%
Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by June 30? Jun 15 $221 −$5 -2%
Spread: IK Start (-1.5) May 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May May 16 $13 $0 +0%
Spread: Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC (-2.5) May 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? May 15 $30 −$3 -10%
Spread: El Gouna SC (-2.5) May 12 $49 −$49 -100%
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? May 12 $17 $0 +0%
Spread: FC Hermannstadt (-2.5) May 05 $455 +$28 +6%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 04 $454 $0 +0%
Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate after the May Meeting? Mar 28 $102 +$1 +1%
Vissel Kōbe vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 4.5 Mar 27 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $360 29m
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $356 1h
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by September 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $351 1h
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by September 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $352 2h
Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $216 7d
Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $221 7d
Spread: IK Start (-1.5) BUY IK Start $8 37d
Spread: IK Start (-1.5) BUY IK Start $7 37d
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May SELL Yes $6 37d
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May SELL Yes $7 37d
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May BUY Yes $6 37d
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May BUY Yes $6 37d
Spread: Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC (-2.5) BUY Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC $8 38d
Spread: Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC (-2.5) BUY Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC $8 38d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $13 38d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $14 38d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $15 38d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $15 38d
Spread: El Gouna SC (-2.5) BUY El Gouna SC $25 41d
Spread: El Gouna SC (-2.5) BUY El Gouna SC $24 41d
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $9 41d
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $8 41d
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $9 41d
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $8 41d
Spread: FC Hermannstadt (-2.5) BUY AFC Unirea Slobozia 94¢ $455 49d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $454 49d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $454 49d
Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate after the May Meeting? SELL No 81¢ $52 86d
Vissel Kōbe vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 4.5 BUY Over $8 87d
Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate after the May Meeting? SELL No 80¢ $51 87d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 33 history records