Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:11:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

33
0x33fc…dc88
crypto · 1396 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1,770 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,766 · open +$13
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$912
Realized−$1,766
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses861 / 450
Est. fees paid−$161
Open positions85
Markets (closed)1311 / 1396
History coverage40d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day58.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%
Chart Positions 85 History 1311 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$97
7 days−$116
14 days−$1,048
30 days−$1,557
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 65¢ 66¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+1%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 212.5 Under 45¢ 87¢ $12 $23 +$11 (+93%)
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Josh Hokit 79¢ 78¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-1%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5 Under 49¢ 72¢ $13 $19 +$6 (+47%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 211.5 Under 40¢ 64¢ $11 $17 +$6 (+61%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Milwaukee Brewers 65¢ 64¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-2%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 62¢ 62¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-1%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 208.5 Under 34¢ 58¢ $9 $15 +$6 (+71%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? No 53¢ 52¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 52¢ 52¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 43¢ 42¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 64¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Yes 58¢ 64¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 50¢ 55¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 38¢ 40¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Yes 44¢ 46¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 48¢ 50¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 68¢ 69¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 73¢ 74¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 69¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 75¢ 76¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $12 −$4 -35%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $15 −$10 -66%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $5 $0 -8%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 13 $5 $0 -6%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $5 $0 -5%
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $17 −$1 -5%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $13 −$2 -12%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $9 $0 -4%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $14 −$1 -7%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $14 −$1 -8%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $14 −$1 -5%
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $4 $0 -12%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 13 $13 −$1 -9%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $21 +$4 +18%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 13 $124 −$5 -4%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Donna Vekic Jun 13 $14 −$5 -38%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $13 −$13 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -99%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$2 +18%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 13 $16 +$4 +24%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$2 +23%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 13 $12 +$3 +24%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$2 +18%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-9.5) Jun 13 $13 +$13 +97%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $21 +$4 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 13 $28 +$7 +24%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $13 +$2 +18%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 13 $16 +$4 +22%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $26 +$6 +24%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $21 +$4 +18%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $17 +$3 +16%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +22%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $8 +$3 +39%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $15 +$12 +79%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $14 +$12 +83%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 13 $8 +$2 +19%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $14 −$5 -37%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$3 +61%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 13 $17 −$16 -99%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 12 $12 −$12 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $14 −$14 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$21 -99%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 12 $13 +$2 +16%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 64% −$1,246
sports 25% −$273
other 10% −$228
politics 0% −$5
culture 0% +$2
economics 0% −$4
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $17 30m
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 212.5 BUY Under 45¢ $12 41m
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 208.5 BUY Under 34¢ $9 43m
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 174.5 SELL Under 28¢ $7 46m
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5 BUY Under 49¢ $13 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 211.5 BUY Under 40¢ $11 1h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals SELL Houston Astros 31¢ $8 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $7 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 174.5 BUY Under 52¢ $14 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 20¢ $5 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $7 3h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $15 3h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Houston Astros 46¢ $12 4h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 18¢ $5 4h
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $5 4h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 18¢ $5 4h
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 52¢ $14 4h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 43¢ $12 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 79¢ $21 4h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 19¢ $5 4h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 62¢ $16 5h
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 5h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY Milwaukee Brewers 65¢ $17 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $14 5h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 5h
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 62¢ $16 5h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Toronto Blue Jays 45¢ $12 5h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 34¢ $9 5h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 50¢ $13 5h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants SELL Chicago Cubs 51¢ $13 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 190 -3.6% -12.8% 66% 66% -13.6%
≤30d 998 -5.9% -14.8% 67% 54% -15.6%
≤90d 1311 -7.1% -16.0% 66% 53% -15.4%
all 1311 -7.1% -16.0% 66% 53% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover58.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.0% 53% -15.4%
10% ← realistic here -24.0% 30% -23.5%
15% -31.4% 11% -30.9%
20% -38.1% 6% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $912.08 · official $912.08 (match) · 3500 history records