Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:47:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
33 0x33fa…abca sports 42 markets active 2d ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+10%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%22W / 20L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$3
14 days+$0
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% +$7
other 11% +$1
crypto 3% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +55.6% +40.8% 80% 80% +41.3%
≤30d 11 +19.6% +8.2% 64% 64% +15.9%
≤90d 41 -5.1% -14.1% 51% 46% -1.9%
all 42 -4.5% -13.6% 52% 48% -1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 48% -1.8%
10% -21.9% 43% -11.2%
15% -29.4% 36% -19.8%
20% -36.4% 31% -27.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses22 / 20
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage111d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1 +$1 +105%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +134%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +46%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +42%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $3 +$2 +86%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $1 +$1 +109%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight R May 16 $2 +$2 +79%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Apr 28 $1 −$1 -99%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Rajasthan Royals Apr 28 $1 −$1 -99%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Punjab Kings Apr 25 $1 +$1 +70%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Gujarat Titans Apr 24 $1 +$1 +67%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Kolkata Knight Riders Apr 20 $2 −$1 -49%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals Apr 20 $3 −$1 -20%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Delhi Capitals Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Rajasthan Royals Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants Apr 20 $2 +$1 +60%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Royal Challengers Bangalore Apr 12 $2 $0 -9%
Pakistan Super League: Hyderabad Kingsmen vs Islamabad United Apr 12 $1 +$1 +73%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Gujarat Titans Apr 12 $2 −$1 -36%
Pakistan Super League: Karachi Kings vs Hyderabad Kingsmen Apr 11 $1 +$1 +52%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Apr 11 $1 +$2 +165%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Royal Challengers Bangalore Apr 10 $2 $0 +10%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Lucknow Super Giants Apr 09 $1 $0 -2%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Mumbai Indians Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals Apr 07 $4 +$1 +26%
ODI Series Australia vs India, Women: Australia vs India Apr 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Chennai Super Kings Apr 04 $1 −$1 -100%
T20 World Cup: India vs New Zealand Apr 04 $1 −$1 -100%
T20 World Cup: South Africa vs New Zealand Apr 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Apr 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Punjab Kings Apr 04 $6 +$5 +83%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Apr 03 $7 $0 +5%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Delhi Capitals Apr 02 $5 +$1 +20%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Gujarat Titans Mar 31 $1 −$1 -74%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Kolkata Knight Riders Mar 29 $2 +$1 +27%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Sunrisers Hydera Mar 28 $2 +$1 +29%
T20 World Cup: Sri Lanka vs Pakistan Feb 28 $1 $0 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 40h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 7d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 7d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 9d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans BUY Royal Challengers Bengaluru 53¢ $3 21d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Gujarat Titans 47¢ $1 23d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight R BUY Royal Challengers Bangalore 55¢ $2 39d
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Sunrisers Hyderabad BUY Mumbai Indians 52¢ $1 54d
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Punjab Kings 57¢ $1 54d
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Punjab Kings BUY Punjab Kings 58¢ $1 57d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Gujarat Titans BUY Royal Challengers Bangalore 59¢ $1 57d
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants BUY Punjab Kings 62¢ $2 62d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Rajasthan Royals 60¢ $1 62d
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Kolkata Knight Riders BUY Kolkata Knight Riders 47¢ $1 67d
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Kolkata Knight Riders SELL Chennai Super Kings 56¢ $1 67d
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Kolkata Knight Riders BUY Chennai Super Kings 54¢ $1 67d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Rajasthan Royals 58¢ $1 68d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals SELL Sunrisers Hyderabad 42¢ $1 68d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Sunrisers Hyderabad 31¢ $1 68d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals SELL Rajasthan Royals 68¢ $1 68d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Rajasthan Royals 63¢ $1 68d
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Royal Challengers Bangalore SELL Mumbai Indians 6¢ $0 69d
Pakistan Super League: Hyderabad Kingsmen vs Islamabad United SELL Hyderabad Kingsmen 88¢ $2 69d
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Royal Challengers Bangalore BUY Mumbai Indians 29¢ $1 69d
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Royal Challengers Bangalore SELL Royal Challengers Bangalore 71¢ $2 69d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 103 history records