Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:21:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
33 0x33f8…ec4d other 7 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$924 (-49%) realized −$922 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$271per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days−$790
14 days−$639
30 days−$913
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% −$760
crypto 11% −$163
sports 3% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -32.5% -39.0% 50% 50% -77.5%
≤30d 6 +0.7% -8.9% 50% 50% -54.2%
≤90d 6 +0.7% -8.9% 50% 50% -54.2%
all 6 +0.7% -8.9% 50% 50% -54.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 50% -54.2%
10% -17.6% 33% -58.6%
15% -25.6% 33% -62.6%
20% -32.9% 33% -66.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -49% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$107 vs −$411 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$922
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage14d
Avg bet$271
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $49 $47 −$2 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $52 +$8 +15%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $999 −$797 -80%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $66 +$112 +170%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $199 −$163 -82%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $253 +$201 +79%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $279 −$274 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 45¢ $50 14m
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 44¢ $59 1h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $52 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 14¢ $202 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $500 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $499 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $179 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 36¢ $51 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 36¢ $15 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 10¢ $37 13d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $199 13d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $454 13d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 55¢ $253 13d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 14d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 50¢ $279 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.39 · official $47.39 (match) · 15 history records