Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:55:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x33f8…c5e4 culture 252 markets active 2h ago coverage 163d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy culture specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 162d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$16,202 (+18%) realized +$15,452 · open +$750
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate41%99W / 141L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$361per market
Trades / day20.5pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$1,802now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$457
7 days+$431
14 days+$455
30 days−$402
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
culture 87% +$6,211
world 6% +$2,408
other 3% −$78
politics 2% −$46
sports 1% +$81
finance 1% +$166
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +95.9% +77.3% 46% 31% +0.9%
≤30d 51 -0.9% -10.3% 33% 29% -10.9%
≤90d 165 +1.4% -8.3% 31% 26% -14.8%
all 240 +18.0% +6.8% 41% 35% -0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.8% 35% -0.1%
10% ← realistic here -3.4% 28% -9.6%
15% -12.8% 23% -18.4%
20% -21.3% 20% -26.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +27% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
8.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$302 vs −$158 · ×1.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

163d coverage
Net worth$1,802
Realized+$15,452
Unrealized+$750
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses99 / 141
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions16
Markets (closed)240 / 252
History coverage163d ⚠
Avg bet$361
Trades / day20.5
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 240 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be less than 14m? No 11¢ 56¢ $132 $635 +$504 (+383%)
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 15m? Yes 15¢ 55¢ $124 $453 +$329 (+267%)
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 5¢ 11¢ $176 $382 +$206 (+117%)
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m? Yes 4¢ 10¢ $83 $181 +$98 (+119%)
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m? No 3¢ 10¢ $26 $74 +$48 (+186%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 6¢ 9¢ $14 $24 +$10 (+71%)
Will "Disclosure Day" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 20m and 22m? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $8 $21 +$12 (+150%)
Will Toy Story 5 have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $74 $11 −$62 (-85%)
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 15m and 16m? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $226 $10 −$216 (-96%)
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election in Los Angeles County? No 5¢ 3¢ $8 $5 −$3 (-36%)
Will "Disclosure Day" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 20m? No 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Will Tom Steyer finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election in Los Angeles County? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-76%)
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $50 $1 −$49 (-98%)
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be greater than 17m? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $25 $1 −$24 (-97%)
Will Tom Steyer finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $77 $1 −$76 (-99%)
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 16m and 17m? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$24 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 72 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will "Marty Supreme" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 22m and 25m Jun 22 $143 −$143 -100%
Maduro out in 2025? Jun 22 $180 −$180 -100%
Alabama vs. Indiana Jun 22 $46 −$46 -100%
Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be between 129m and 143m? Jun 22 $45 −$83 -184%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $34 −$33 -97%
Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on Ju Jun 20 $1,278 +$28 +2%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 Jun 15 $539 +$242 +45%
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m? Jun 15 $1,533 +$123 +8%
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m? Jun 15 $246 +$179 +73%
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? Jun 15 $374 +$464 +124%
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 14m? Jun 15 $146 −$145 -99%
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 12m and 13m? Jun 15 $9 −$8 -88%
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 15m? Jun 15 $139 +$33 +24%
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 11m? Jun 15 $24 −$9 -38%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Jun 15 $175 −$131 -75%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 Jun 14 $172 −$149 -87%
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 16m and 17m? Jun 13 $53 −$53 -99%
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be greater than 13m? Jun 13 $61 +$23 +37%
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 17m? Jun 12 $119 +$214 +180%
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 15m and 17m? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2 Jun 08 $335 +$165 +49%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 48m and 52m? Jun 08 $37 −$33 -92%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m? Jun 08 $263 +$209 +80%
Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 21m and 24m? Jun 08 $127 −$122 -96%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) Jun 07 $118 −$116 -98%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 44m and 48m? Jun 06 $57 −$48 -84%
Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be less than 21m? Jun 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 06 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Tom Steyer finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary e Jun 05 $66 +$15 +22%
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor prima Jun 03 $11 +$3 +29%
Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 03 $54 −$52 -96%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 03 $101 −$97 -97%
Will Nithya Raman & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2 Jun 03 $31 −$29 -96%
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 02 $63 −$63 -100%
Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 7m? Jun 01 $465 +$86 +18%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 79m? Jun 01 $646 −$141 -22%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 67m and 73m? Jun 01 $240 −$22 -9%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 25m Jun 01 $97 −$91 -95%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 2 Jun 01 $79 −$69 -87%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 73m and 79m? Jun 01 $67 −$48 -72%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $247 +$258 +104%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 12.5m May 27 $134 +$484 +362%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 11.5m May 26 $31 −$31 -100%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 24 $204 −$166 -81%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 24 $350 −$42 -12%
Will "Passenger" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 9.5m? May 23 $710 −$560 -79%
Will "I Love Boosters" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 6m? May 23 $130 −$120 -92%
Will "I Love Boosters" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3m and 4m May 23 $2 +$1 +24%
Will "Michael" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? May 23 $51 −$33 -64%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be l May 23 $9 +$9 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m BUY Yes 2¢ $20 2h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m BUY No 3¢ $19 2h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m BUY No 3¢ $0 2h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m BUY Yes 5¢ $28 2h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m BUY No 4¢ $6 2h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m BUY Yes 4¢ $2 2h
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be less than 14m? BUY No 5¢ $2 2h
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be less than 14m? BUY No 7¢ $4 2h
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be less than 14m? BUY No 7¢ $4 2h
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 15m? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 2h
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be less than 14m? BUY No 8¢ $40 3h
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 15m? BUY Yes 15¢ $24 3h
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 15m? BUY Yes 15¢ $14 3h
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 15m? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 3h
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be less than 14m? BUY No 15¢ $15 3h
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 15m? BUY Yes 15¢ $26 3h
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be greater than 17m? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 16m and 17m? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 15m? BUY Yes 17¢ $23 3h
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 15m? BUY Yes 14¢ $24 3h
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 15m? BUY Yes 13¢ $7 3h
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be less than 14m? SELL No 14¢ $3 3h
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be less than 14m? BUY No 17¢ $73 3h
Will Toy Story 5 have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be less than 14m? SELL Yes 87¢ $66 3h
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be less than 14m? SELL Yes 87¢ $87 3h
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be less than 14m? SELL Yes 87¢ $87 3h
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be less than 14m? SELL Yes 87¢ $60 3h
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be less than 14m? SELL Yes 94¢ $61 3h
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be less than 14m? SELL Yes 87¢ $87 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,801.79 · official $1,801.79 (match) · 3500 history records