Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:48:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x33f0…116e other 26 markets active 0h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$139 (-23%) realized −$153 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate40%8W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31
7 days−$220
14 days−$220
30 days−$221
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 72% −$119
other 23% −$39
sports 5% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -10.9% -19.4% 41% 18% -51.9%
≤30d 18 -11.0% -19.4% 39% 17% -51.0%
≤90d 20 -7.4% -16.2% 40% 20% -34.2%
all 20 -7.4% -16.2% 40% 20% -34.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 20% -34.2%
10% -24.2% 15% -40.5%
15% -31.5% 10% -46.2%
20% -38.3% 10% -51.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 95% · top 2 97% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$20 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$153
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses8 / 12
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)20 / 26
History coverage62d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 60¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 43 and 45 million views on day 2? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-21%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 41 and 43 million views on day 2? Yes 34¢ 26¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-24%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Yes 43¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 $0 +23%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -45%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $11 −$1 -5%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $12 +$1 +7%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +142%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $12 −$1 -11%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 $0 +6%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $34 −$32 -94%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $1 $0 +11%
Will Curaçao be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 13 $2 $0 -23%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $19 +$2 +10%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $5 $0 -10%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -30%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 $0 -19%
Will Mexico reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $3 $0 +3%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $359 −$187 -52%
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? May 21 $13 −$2 -11%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun May 06 $60 +$87 +145%
Will Jorge Nieto finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Apr 15 $20 −$19 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will MrBeast's next video get between 41 and 43 million views on day 2 BUY Yes 34¢ $2 17m
Will MrBeast's next video get between 43 and 45 million views on day 2 BUY Yes $2 17m
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 53m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $0 54m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $1 56m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $1 57m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 1h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 5h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 5h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes $9 5h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $8 5h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 5h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes $1 5h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 5h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 100¢ $9 19h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 47¢ $4 19h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 27¢ $1 20h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 25¢ $1 20h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 17¢ $4 20h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 26¢ $2 20h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 70¢ $2 22h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 24h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 32¢ $1 24h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $2 25h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 25h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 93¢ $2 25h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes $2 25h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 96¢ $32 25h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $5 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.37 · official $40.37 (match) · 82 history records