trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +3.5% | -6.3% | 67% | 33% | -6.3% |
| ≤30d | 3 | +3.5% | -6.3% | 67% | 33% | -6.3% |
| ≤90d | 3 | +3.5% | -6.3% | 67% | 33% | -6.3% |
| all | 15 | -29.4% | -36.1% | 47% | 33% | -41.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -36.1% | 33% | -41.9% |
| 10% | -42.2% | 20% | -47.4% |
| 15% | -47.8% | 13% | -52.5% |
| 20% | -52.9% | 7% | -57.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? | Yes | 21¢ | 22¢ | $2 | $2 | +$0 (+2%) |
| Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election? | No | 87¢ | 78¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-11%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Jun 16 | $1 | $0 | -12% |
| Will Gold close at $3,200 or more at the end of 2025? | Jun 16 | $1 | $0 | +5% |
| Bank of England rate cut in 2025? | Jun 16 | $1 | $0 | +18% |
| Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2025-11-09? | Nov 09 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 7? | Nov 08 | $4 | +$3 | +61% |
| Will Gold close above $5000 at the end of 2025? | Nov 07 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 5? | Nov 05 | $3 | +$1 | +29% |
| Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be 1500.00 or higher on Dec | Nov 04 | $1 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Bitcoin dip below $100k before 2026? | Nov 04 | $1 | $0 | +48% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? | Oct 29 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 27? | Oct 28 | $1 | $0 | +11% |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 28? | Oct 28 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104,000 and $106,000 on October | Oct 26 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2025-10-26? | Oct 26 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| Will Gold close between $3900 and $4000 at the end of 2025? | Oct 26 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |