Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:39:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x33f0…017d world 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 402d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate38%13W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% +$1
other 23% $0
politics 10% $0
crypto 3% −$2
economics 3% $0
weather 2% +$1
sports 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -2.0% -11.4% 0% 0% -11.8%
≤30d 11 -5.3% -14.3% 27% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 11 -5.3% -14.3% 27% 0% -9.4%
all 34 -4.6% -13.7% 38% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 0% -9.6%
10% -22.0% 0% -18.3%
15% -29.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -36.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 64% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

402d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses13 / 21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage402d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 96¢ 96¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 23 $39 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $16 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $37 −$2 -6%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $41 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $49 +$3 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $35 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $15 $0 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $36 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $36 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $14 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 15 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before July? Dec 14 $2 $0 +5%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 28 $5 $0 +6%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Jun 06 $18 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jun-seok win between 2% and 5% of the vote in the South Korea Jun 05 $18 $0 +2%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June? Jun 03 $18 $0 +3%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? May 31 $1 $0 +0%
Will Jalen Brunson Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? May 31 $6 +$1 +10%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? May 30 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 30 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Trump issue a Gold Card before June? May 29 $3 −$1 -27%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more betwe May 29 $3 $0 -12%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? May 28 $2 −$2 -91%
Judge Boasberg impeached before June? May 27 $18 $0 +0%
Will STAN win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026? May 26 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? May 26 $21 $0 -0%
Will George Russell finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? May 25 $21 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? May 25 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? May 25 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? May 24 $20 $0 +0%
Will George Simion win by over 18%? May 22 $2 $0 +3%
Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people? May 21 $20 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $26 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $38 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $39 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $39 13h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $16 22h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 24h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $11 24h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 46¢ $11 27h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 46¢ $24 27h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 49¢ $6 30h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 49¢ $31 30h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $41 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 69¢ $41 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $14 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $11 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $24 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $35 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 37¢ $7 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 36¢ $8 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 37¢ $3 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 36¢ $2 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 36¢ $2 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 36¢ $9 11d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $30 11d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $6 11d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $36 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.49 · official $12.49 (match) · 133 history records