Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:32:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

33 0x33ea…8b78 sports 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL +$25 (+3%) realized +$26 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip

Net edge+10%after slip

Net WR71%break-even

Win rate86%6W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$118per market

Trades / day2.9pace

Fees−$10est.

Kalshi-fit75%portable

Net worth$149now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +71%

net ROI/market (all)+9.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	+21.2%	+9.7%	86%	71%	-2.3%
≤30d	7	+21.2%	+9.7%	86%	71%	-2.3%
≤90d	7	+21.2%	+9.7%	86%	71%	-2.3%
all	7	+21.2%	+9.7%	86%	71%	-2.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.9 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+9.7%	71%	-2.3%
10%	-0.8%	57%	-11.7%
15%	-10.4%	43%	-20.2%
20%	-19.2%	29%	-28.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 37% · top 2 69% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +8% too few recent

Fragile wins

17% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +21% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$44 vs −$200 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.31 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$149

Realized+$26

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)86%

Wins / losses6 / 1

Est. fees paid−$10

Open positions1

Markets (closed)7 / 8

History coverage3d

Avg bet$118

Trades / day2.9

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 7 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	89¢	88¢	$150	$149	−$1 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
United States vs. Australia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	Jun 19	$211	+$96	+46%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	Jun 18	$126	+$85	+67%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 6.5 Total Corners	Jun 18	$100	+$19	+19%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	Jun 17	$59	+$48	+83%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	Jun 17	$56	+$3	+5%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$40	+$12	+29%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 6.5 Corners	Jun 16	$203	−$200	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$150	1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	68¢	$211	15h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	59¢	$126	28h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 6.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	84¢	$100	29h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	54¢	$59	2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	SELL Over	55¢	$59	2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	51¢	$56	2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	77¢	$40	3d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 6.5 Corners	BUY Over	47¢	$203	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $149.16 · official $149.16 (match) · 14 history records