Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:26:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x33ea…ee9f sports 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$40 (-2%) realized +$17 · open −$57
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate45%10W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day13.9pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$180
sports 36% −$247
crypto 11% +$132
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-42.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -36.1% -42.2% 45% 41% -23.7%
≤30d 22 -36.1% -42.2% 45% 41% -23.7%
≤90d 22 -36.1% -42.2% 45% 41% -23.7%
all 22 -36.1% -42.2% 45% 41% -23.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.2% 41% -23.7%
10% -47.8% 32% -31.0%
15% -52.8% 23% -37.7%
20% -57.4% 14% -43.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -45% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$49 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized+$17
Unrealized−$57
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses10 / 12
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage3d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day13.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Over 61¢ 11¢ $69 $12 −$57 (-82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $48 +$21 +44%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $216 −$216 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $200 +$67 +34%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $7 −$7 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $101 −$95 -93%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $51 +$2 +4%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $111 +$14 +12%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $51 +$12 +24%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $181 +$132 +73%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $61 +$34 +57%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $111 −$28 -26%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $89 −$89 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $54 −$43 -80%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 20 $49 +$27 +56%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $61 −$53 -87%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $83 +$29 +35%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 19 $66 +$14 +21%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $9 −$9 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 61¢ $70 46m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 88¢ $70 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 59¢ $44 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $216 14h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 69¢ $52 21h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 37¢ $7 22h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 SELL Over $7 22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $200 23h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $101 24h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 42¢ $53 27h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 71¢ $125 27h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 27h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes $10 27h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 26¢ $64 27h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $111 30h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 30h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $51 30h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $312 30h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $29 33h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $151 36h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $95 43h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 63¢ $61 43h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 44h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 87¢ $89 46h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 10¢ $10 46h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 48¢ $79 46h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 49¢ $54 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 27¢ $31 2d
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? SELL Yes 100¢ $71 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.47 · official $12.47 (match) · 43 history records