Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T07:16:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

33
0x33e2…3a1b
world · 63 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$3,246 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2,132 · open +$593
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Net worth$4,573
Realized+$2,132
Unrealized+$593
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses27 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Open positions13
Markets (closed)52 / 63
History coverage18d
Avg bet$1,127
Trades / day38.7
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 13 History 52 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$386
7 days+$1,129
14 days+$2,304
30 days+$2,132
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 49¢ 72¢ $1,113 $1,631 +$519 (+47%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 No 62¢ 64¢ $1,285 $1,336 +$52 (+4%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 24¢ 25¢ $1,012 $1,057 +$45 (+4%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 18, 2026? Yes 87¢ 90¢ $115 $119 +$5 (+4%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $109 $109 −$0 (-0%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $93 $92 −$1 (-1%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 14, 2026? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $89 $90 +$1 (+1%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 41¢ 42¢ $67 $69 +$2 (+4%)
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 28¢ $8 $69 +$61 (+807%)
Will Maria Deery win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes $23 $0 −$22 (-98%)
Will Simon Finkelstein win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes $23 $0 −$22 (-98%)
Will James Thomas Bryer win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes $23 $0 −$22 (-98%)
Will John Skipworth win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes $23 $0 −$22 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $9,344 −$163 -2%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 13, 2026? Jun 14 $243 −$12 -5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 14 $128 −$4 -3%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $329 +$161 +49%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $1,163 +$71 +6%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $340 −$34 -10%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $1,045 +$433 +42%
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Mark Juncosa be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 13 $77 +$15 +19%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $70 +$8 +12%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $448 −$75 -17%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 12 $337 +$86 +26%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $1,143 −$81 -7%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $418 −$16 -4%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 11 $2,346 +$68 +3%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 11 $475 +$24 +5%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $1,394 −$26 -2%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $80 −$80 -100%
Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31? Jun 10 $28 −$16 -57%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $7,670 +$176 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $85 +$4 +4%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $152 $0 +0%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $254 −$8 -3%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 09 $150 −$30 -20%
Will Petro mention Hitler again by June 30? Jun 09 $35 −$13 -38%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $2,018 −$78 -4%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $92 +$2 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $5,656 +$314 +6%
Will "Kai Harada" win Best Sound Design of a Musical at the 2026 Tony Jun 08 $3 −$2 -70%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $4,083 +$119 +3%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 07 $186 +$120 +65%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 07 $272 +$169 +62%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $657 +$43 +6%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? Jun 05 $228 +$58 +25%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $478 +$16 +3%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $893 +$9 +1%
Will Karen Bass finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angele Jun 03 $227 +$64 +28%
Will Randy Feenstra win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary elec Jun 03 $108 −$12 -11%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $3,330 +$932 +28%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 20 Jun 02 $614 −$47 -8%
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by May 31? Jun 02 $15 −$6 -39%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $665 +$60 +9%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $446 +$57 +13%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31? May 31 $286 −$180 -63%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 29 $89 +$13 +15%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 28, 2026? May 29 $121 −$51 -42%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 28 $435 +$105 +24%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 28 $319 −$31 -10%
Will "Canada" or "Canadian" be said on the Lemonade Stand Podcast? May 28 $82 +$11 +13%
Will Donald Trump dance on May 25, 2026? May 27 $267 −$2 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 64% +$797
politics 23% +$1,110
crypto 5% +$932
other 4% −$19
tech 3% −$94
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 55¢ $220 1m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $432 1m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $480 5m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 61¢ $418 8m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 62¢ $78 9m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $100 11m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 63¢ $19 20m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 62¢ $155 24m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 68¢ $117 36m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 50¢ $1 56m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 68¢ $170 58m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 68¢ $108 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 50¢ $9 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes $6 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 81¢ $162 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 84¢ $167 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 49¢ $103 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No 73¢ $347 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 11¢ $115 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 12¢ $58 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 89¢ $54 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 10¢ $52 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 11¢ $229 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 68¢ $325 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 100¢ $731 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 100¢ $249 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 100¢ $11 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 100¢ $5 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No 55¢ $138 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 57¢ $390 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -4.3% -13.4% 50% 22% -7.0%
≤30d 52 -4.7% -13.7% 52% 27% -5.6%
≤90d 52 -4.7% -13.7% 52% 27% -5.6%
all 52 -4.7% -13.7% 52% 27% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover38.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.7% 27% -5.6%
10% -22.0% 17% -14.7%
15% ← realistic here -29.5% 8% -22.9%
20% -36.4% 4% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,573.43 · official $4,516.71 · 770 history records