Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:00:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
33 0x33dd…1142 sports 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$311 (+8%) realized +$264 · open +$47
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate88%38W / 5L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$428now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$96
14 days+$175
30 days+$282
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% +$261
other 17% +$92
politics 1% +$1
crypto 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +7.8% -2.5% 100% 50% -2.8%
≤30d 18 +9.1% -1.3% 100% 39% -1.3%
≤90d 43 -4.1% -13.3% 88% 26% -1.9%
all 43 -4.1% -13.3% 88% 26% -1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 26% -1.9%
10% -21.6% 9% -11.3%
15% -29.1% 0% -19.8%
20% -36.1% 0% -27.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$3 · ×2.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×20.65 per $1 lost it wins $20.65
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$428
Realized+$264
Unrealized+$47
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses38 / 5
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage58d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Australia 89¢ 100¢ $381 $428 +$47 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 17 $378 +$4 +1%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $338 +$41 +12%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $288 +$49 +17%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $286 +$2 +1%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $271 +$14 +5%
Will India win? Jun 08 $267 +$4 +2%
Will the match end in a draw? Jun 06 $207 +$61 +29%
Will Vaibhav Sooryavanshi win the 2026 IPL Orange Cap? May 31 $179 +$27 +15%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $117 +$34 +29%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 26 $97 +$20 +21%
T20 Blast: Lancashire vs Nottinghamshire May 25 $96 $0 +0%
T20 Series England vs. New Zealand, Women: England vs New Zealand May 25 $96 $0 +0%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals May 25 $84 +$11 +13%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 24 $81 +$3 +4%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings May 23 $81 +$1 +1%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 22 $80 $0 +1%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings May 21 $73 +$7 +10%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians May 20 $73 +$2 +3%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants May 19 $58 +$1 +2%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 18 $51 +$7 +14%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru May 17 $24 +$1 +6%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans May 16 $40 +$10 +24%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings May 15 $36 +$2 +5%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Delhi Capitals May 15 $36 +$1 +4%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants May 10 $35 +$2 +5%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Gujarat Titans May 09 $33 +$1 +4%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Kolkata Knight Riders May 08 $33 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Royal Challengers Banga May 08 $30 +$3 +10%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W May 06 $13 $0 +1%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 A May 05 $16 +$1 +5%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Punjab Kings May 03 $10 +$1 +12%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Mumbai Indians May 02 $10 +$1 +8%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Chennai Super Kings May 02 $6 −$6 -100%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Kolkata Knight Riders May 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Delhi Capitals May 01 $2 $0 +4%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Gujarat Titans Apr 26 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Apr 23 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Apr 23 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Apr 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Apr 23 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Apr 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Apr 22 $3 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 89¢ $382 1h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL India 100¢ $383 44h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 99¢ $378 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 89¢ $338 2d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 85¢ $288 5d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL India 100¢ $288 5d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 99¢ $286 5d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Bangladesh 100¢ $286 7d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 95¢ $271 7d
Will India win? SELL Yes 100¢ $271 11d
Will India win? BUY Yes 98¢ $267 13d
Will the match end in a draw? SELL No 99¢ $267 13d
Will the match end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $207 14d
Will Vaibhav Sooryavanshi win the 2026 IPL Orange Cap? SELL Yes 100¢ $206 18d
Will Vaibhav Sooryavanshi win the 2026 IPL Orange Cap? BUY Yes 86¢ $179 20d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Rajasthan Royals 77¢ $117 22d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans SELL Royal Challengers Bengaluru 100¢ $117 23d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans BUY Royal Challengers Bengaluru 82¢ $97 23d
T20 Blast: Lancashire vs Nottinghamshire SELL Lancashire 100¢ $96 24d
T20 Blast: Lancashire vs Nottinghamshire BUY Lancashire 99¢ $96 24d
T20 Series England vs. New Zealand, Women: England vs New Zealand SELL England 100¢ $96 24d
T20 Series England vs. New Zealand, Women: England vs New Zealand BUY England 100¢ $96 24d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals BUY Delhi Capitals 88¢ $84 25d
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals SELL Rajasthan Royals 64¢ $85 25d
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Rajasthan Royals 60¢ $81 25d
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings SELL Punjab Kings 100¢ $81 26d
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings BUY Punjab Kings 99¢ $81 26d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal SELL Sunrisers Hyderabad 100¢ $80 27d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal BUY Sunrisers Hyderabad 99¢ $80 27d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings BUY Gujarat Titans 91¢ $73 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $428.03 · official $428.03 (match) · 87 history records