Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:46:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
33 0x33db…b673 other 88 markets active 1h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$301 (+3%) realized +$316 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate27%23W / 63L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$55est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$245now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$57
7 days+$10
14 days+$230
30 days+$924
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$90
sports 31% +$82
crypto 7% +$183
economics 1% −$100
tech 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-40.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -17.5% -25.4% 33% 33% -4.1%
≤30d 23 +22.5% +10.8% 48% 48% +16.1%
≤90d 61 -19.1% -26.8% 33% 31% -10.4%
all 86 -33.7% -40.0% 27% 26% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.0% 26% -6.6%
10% -45.7% 26% -15.6%
15% -51.0% 20% -23.7%
20% -55.8% 17% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -60% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$175 vs −$60 · ×2.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$245
Realized+$316
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses23 / 63
Est. fees paid−$55
Open positions1
Markets (closed)86 / 88
History coverage119d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 43¢ 40¢ $260 $245 −$15 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 48 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Jun 22 $662 −$46 -7%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $189 +$103 +54%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $53 −$47 -88%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $8 +$34 +416%
Parma: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche Jun 15 $72 −$8 -11%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $40 −$40 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $60 −$10 -17%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $54 +$18 +34%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $61 −$8 -12%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 15 $46 +$15 +33%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $34 +$12 +34%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 15 $36 −$1 -3%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $162 +$145 +89%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $610 +$279 +46%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $263 +$69 +26%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $226 +$52 +23%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $343 −$337 -98%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $26 −$22 -84%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $155 +$547 +353%
Will SK Brann vs. Sarpsborg 08 FF end in a draw? May 29 $119 −$117 -98%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 24 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 24 $220 +$314 +143%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 18 $194 −$191 -99%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 18 $71 −$3 -4%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 18 $127 −$1 -1%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? May 18 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $125 +$79 +63%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $240 −$237 -98%
Will Gangwon FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $106 −$105 -99%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 09 $291 −$130 -45%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 09 $156 +$78 +50%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $131 +$88 +67%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $91 −$90 -99%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $231 −$11 -5%
Exact Score: Austin FC 0 - 0 St. Louis City SC? May 03 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Austin FC vs. St. Louis City SC end in a draw? May 03 $25 −$25 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics May 03 $71 +$59 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 03 $37 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 03 $22 −$21 -94%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $79 +$53 +67%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 02 $125 −$45 -36%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-04-23? Apr 23 $240 −$236 -98%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO3) - LCS Group Stage Apr 04 $120 −$120 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $55 +$65 +118%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $157 −$155 -99%
Will RCD Mallorca vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Apr 04 $8 −$1 -14%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Elche CF end in a draw? Apr 03 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Levante UD end in a draw? Apr 03 $45 −$44 -98%
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix? Mar 29 $281 +$251 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $265 1h
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) SELL Conor McGregor 34¢ $265 1h
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Conor McGregor 36¢ $290 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $291 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? AND Wil BUY 2¢ $75 31h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $189 33h
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) SELL Conor McGregor 32¢ $188 33h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 6d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 6d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 43¢ $48 6d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 79¢ $40 7d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 60¢ $50 7d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 71¢ $60 7d
Parma: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche SELL Luca Van Assche 54¢ $60 7d
Parma: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche BUY Luca Van Assche 61¢ $72 7d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 97¢ $72 7d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 72¢ $54 7d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL EDward Gaming 66¢ $54 7d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 74¢ $61 7d
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta SELL Bebop 100¢ $62 7d
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY Bebop 74¢ $46 7d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 99¢ $46 7d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 73¢ $34 7d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series BUY TDK 51¢ $36 7d
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Conor McGregor 32¢ $196 7d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $307 7d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $162 7d
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) SELL Conor McGregor 30¢ $163 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 88¢ $626 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $245.19 · official $245.19 (match) · 153 history records