Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:18:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
33 0x33d9…a607 world 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 50d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL −$802 (-27%) realized −$787 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +24% what you keep after slip
Net edge+24%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$367per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$190now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$543
7 days−$543
14 days−$402
30 days−$402
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 89% −$423
tech 10% +$21
other 1% +$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+23.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -38.1% -44.0% 50% 0% -77.5%
≤30d 3 -17.3% -25.1% 67% 33% -37.5%
≤90d 7 +37.0% +23.9% 57% 29% -22.8%
all 7 +37.0% +23.9% 57% 29% -22.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +23.9% 29% -22.8%
10% +12.1% 29% -30.1%
15% +1.3% 14% -36.9%
20% -8.7% 14% -43.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +37% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$183 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$190
Realized−$787
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage50d
Avg bet$367
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 7¢ 6¢ $205 $190 −$15 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $696 −$543 -78%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $26 $0 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $579 +$141 +24%
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? May 15 $21 +$63 +305%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? May 03 $500 −$6 -1%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 01 $291 +$21 +7%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 30 $99 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $190.36 · official $190.36 (match) · 22 history records