Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T07:14:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

33
0x33d7…0ffe
other · 143 markets active 1h ago
4.0score
+$1,281 +6%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,291 · open +$15
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Net worth$565
Realized+$1,291
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses118 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions9
Markets (closed)134 / 143
History coverage158d
Avg bet$162
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit61%
Chart Positions 9 History 134 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$108
7 days+$256
14 days+$333
30 days+$534
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 96¢ 98¢ $324 $332 +$8 (+2%)
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.2m barrels per day in 2026? Yes 86¢ 84¢ $161 $156 −$5 (-3%)
WIll Lamine Yamal play in the World Cup? Yes 72¢ 99¢ $24 $34 +$9 (+37%)
Will voter turnout be 57-60% in the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 94¢ 98¢ $31 $32 +$1 (+3%)
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026? Yes 74¢ 91¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+23%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+19%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kenan Yıldız: 1+ goals Jun 14 $39 +$1 +3%
Duckens Nazon: 1+ goals Jun 14 $416 +$35 +8%
Scott McTominay: 1+ goals Jun 14 $56 +$2 +3%
Ayoub El Kaabi: 1+ goals Jun 14 $449 +$23 +5%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 +$5 +23%
Akram Afif: 1+ goals Jun 13 $237 +$11 +5%
Breel Embolo: 3+ goals Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $48 +$4 +9%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $374 +$7 +2%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $399 +$20 +5%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $378 +$20 +5%
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential ele Jun 12 $829 +$17 +2%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $87 +$13 +14%
Gilberto Mora: 1+ goals Jun 11 $211 +$23 +11%
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +11%
Will Florentino Perez win the 2026 Real Madrid presidential election? Jun 08 $987 +$68 +7%
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential ele Jun 08 $242 +$7 +3%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella & Iván Cepeda Castro advance to the seco Jun 04 $660 +$27 +4%
Will Ethan Daley die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 01 $72 +$5 +8%
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners Jun 01 $677 −$6 -1%
Will voter turnout be 60%+ in the first round of the 2026 Colombian pr May 31 $40 +$10 +24%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $188 +$40 +22%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by May 31? May 30 $354 +$20 +6%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $99 +$18 +19%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $7 −$5 -76%
Will Bessent say "Cuba" during Press Briefing? May 28 $137 +$7 +5%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Cabinet meetin May 27 $102 +$8 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $241 +$39 +16%
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? May 25 $9 +$1 +15%
Will Justin Bieber have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listene May 24 $1,217 +$109 +9%
Florentino Perez out as Real Madrid president by December 31, 2026? May 18 $1 +$1 +71%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $50 +$1 +1%
Will "Kawhi" or "Leonard" be said on ICEMAN? May 16 $48 +$2 +3%
Will Drake release a surprise album? May 15 $44 +$4 +9%
Will Kimiko Miyashiro die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 13 $13 $0 -0%
Epstein suicide note released by May 8? May 11 $803 +$32 +4%
Will Trump say "Sea" or "Water" during events with Brazilian president May 08 $166 +$1 +1%
Will Trump say "Pelé" during events with Brazilian president? May 08 $19 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Bolsonaro" during events with Brazilian president? May 08 $43 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "BRICS" during events with Brazilian president? May 08 $30 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Get along" or "Getting along" during events with Brazi May 08 $129 +$1 +1%
Will Trump say "China" during events with Brazilian president? May 08 $129 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump's tie be blue on May 5, 2026? May 05 $475 +$5 +1%
Will Nate and Cassie marry in Euphoria: Season 3? May 04 $191 +$3 +1%
Will Bernie Sanders say "Oil" or "Gas" or "Gasoline" in Michigan? May 04 $173 +$3 +2%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 03 $484 +$46 +10%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 03 $16 −$11 -72%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? May 01 $576 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30? May 01 $149 +$3 +2%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 28, 2026? May 01 $755 −$26 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 33% +$508
politics 32% +$302
culture 15% +$296
world 14% +$64
tech 2% +$66
weather 1% +$66
finance 1% −$5
sports 1% +$1
crypto 1% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kenan Yıldız: 1+ goals BUY No 97¢ $39 1h
Duckens Nazon: 1+ goals BUY No 92¢ $416 4h
Scott McTominay: 1+ goals BUY No 97¢ $56 4h
Ayoub El Kaabi: 1+ goals BUY No 95¢ $259 7h
Ayoub El Kaabi: 1+ goals BUY No 95¢ $190 7h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 50¢ $25 8h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 8h
Akram Afif: 1+ goals BUY No 99¢ $5 10h
Akram Afif: 1+ goals BUY No 99¢ $5 10h
Akram Afif: 1+ goals BUY No 95¢ $143 10h
Akram Afif: 1+ goals BUY No 95¢ $84 10h
Breel Embolo: 3+ goals BUY No 98¢ $5 10h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 92¢ $48 29h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 98¢ $374 29h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 98¢ $312 34h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 85¢ $42 34h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 88¢ $44 34h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 97¢ $250 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 94¢ $47 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 92¢ $28 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 90¢ $27 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 87¢ $26 2d
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential ele SELL No 100¢ $38 2d
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential ele SELL No 100¢ $5 2d
Gilberto Mora: 1+ goals BUY No 90¢ $211 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 87¢ $87 2d
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential ele SELL No 100¢ $138 2d
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential ele SELL No 100¢ $9 2d
Will voter turnout be 57-60% in the first round of the 2026 Colombian SELL Yes 99¢ $19 2d
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential ele SELL No 100¢ $157 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +6.9% -3.2% 100% 24% -4.7%
≤30d 33 +7.6% -2.6% 94% 30% -4.0%
≤90d 98 +7.6% -2.6% 88% 26% -4.1%
all 134 +7.5% -2.7% 88% 28% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.7% 28% -4.3%
10% -12.0% 11% -13.5%
15% -20.5% 10% -21.8%
20% -28.3% 6% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $565.04 · official $565.04 (match) · 1192 history records