Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:39:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x33d5…8b7f crypto 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$51 (+9%) realized +$51 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate35%8W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day20.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$1
sports 24% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-42.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -36.2% -42.3% 35% 30% -3.5%
≤30d 23 -36.2% -42.3% 35% 30% -3.5%
≤90d 23 -36.2% -42.3% 35% 30% -3.5%
all 23 -36.2% -42.3% 35% 30% -3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -42.3% 30% -3.5%
10% ← realistic here -47.8% 26% -12.7%
15% -52.9% 26% -21.1%
20% -57.5% 17% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$9 · ×2.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses8 / 15
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage3d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day20.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 20 $48 +$35 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 20 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 20 $16 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 20 $15 +$8 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 20 $16 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 20 $17 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 20 $17 −$16 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 20 $6 −$4 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 20 $52 +$49 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 20 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 20 $7 −$6 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 20 $21 +$10 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 20 $19 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$3 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 20 $57 +$27 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 20 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$1 -56%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 19 $82 −$5 -6%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $50 +$32 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $6 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $52 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 68 history records