Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:51:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x33d5…8464 sports 65 markets active 2h ago coverage 200d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%2W / 63L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$307per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 31% −$4
politics 25% −$5
other 24% −$7
world 7% −$1
crypto 6% $0
tech 4% −$1
economics 1% −$1
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 21 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
all 65 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

200d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses2 / 63
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)65 / 65
History coverage200d
Avg bet$307
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 65 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 21 $278 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $279 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $279 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 23 $280 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $562 −$1 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $563 −$1 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 15 $281 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $281 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $283 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 16 $283 $0 +0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $283 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $283 $0 +0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 07 $283 $0 +0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 05 $283 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $284 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 31 $559 −$1 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 30 $284 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? Mar 29 $286 −$1 -0%
Will Solana dip to $10 in March? Mar 28 $286 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 26 $572 $0 +0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 25 $286 $0 +0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 22 $286 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 21 $286 $0 -0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? Mar 19 $286 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 18 $287 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 17 $238 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in March? Mar 13 $287 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 11 $287 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 10 $861 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 05 $276 −$1 -0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 03 $279 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 28 $282 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 28 $278 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 27 $279 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 26 $281 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 25 $279 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 22 $277 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 11 $272 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 07 $273 $0 -0%
Will Betis win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 05 $282 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 04 $280 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 03 $280 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 02 $283 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 31 $280 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 31 $281 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 30 $274 $0 +0%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 23 $278 $0 -0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 22 $278 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Dec 21 $275 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Dec 20 $279 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $278 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $278 15h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $278 19d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $279 20d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $279 23d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $279 24d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $279 29d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $280 29d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $280 33d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $280 34d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $280 35d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $281 36d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $281 37d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $219 37d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $62 37d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $281 41d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $281 41d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $281 47d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $281 47d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $282 64d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $283 64d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $283 65d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $112 66d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $171 66d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $283 70d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $70 70d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $82 70d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $132 70d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $283 71d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $283 72d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 238 history records