Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T04:46:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

33
0x33d4…2256
weather · 1268 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$79 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$71 · open +$8
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,081
Realized+$71
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses1007 / 245
Open positions15
Markets (closed)1252 / 1268
History coverage196d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day11.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 15 History 1252 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$28
14 days+$58
30 days+$87
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $405 $409 +$3 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $178 $180 +$2 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $170 $172 +$1 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $119 $118 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 84°F or higher on June 14? No 97¢ 100¢ $32 $33 +$1 (+3%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 65°F or below on June 12? No 99¢ 100¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 102°F or higher on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 36°C or higher on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C or below on June 12? No 99¢ 100¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 61°F or below on June 12? No 99¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 20°C or below on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 86°F or higher on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C or higher on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 11°C or below on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 10°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $24 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $209 +$3 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C or below on June 11? Jun 12 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 98-99°F on Ju Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 88°F or higher on June 11? Jun 12 $50 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Jun Jun 12 $441 +$5 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 13°C or below on June 12? Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 11? Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C or below on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 11°C or below on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $12 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 5°C or below on June 10? Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 36°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 102°F or higher on June 9? Jun 10 $288 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $73 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 76°F or higher on Jun Jun 10 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on June 10? Jun 10 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 23°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C on June 9? Jun 09 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on June 9? Jun 09 $22 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on June 9? Jun 09 $271 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 74°F or higher on Jun Jun 09 $114 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or higher on June 8? Jun 08 $39 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 11°C or below on June 8? Jun 08 $20 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on June 7? Jun 08 $550 +$6 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 07 $150 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 81°F or below on June Jun 07 $89 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 07 $60 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 6? Jun 07 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $10 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C or higher on June 6? Jun 07 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 38°C on June 6? Jun 06 $11 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 37°C on June 6? Jun 06 $14 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 6? Jun 06 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 6? Jun 06 $65 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C or higher on June 6? Jun 06 $10 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Jun Jun 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun Jun 06 $89 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 6°C or below on June 5? Jun 06 $18 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 7°C on June 5? Jun 05 $18 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C or higher on June 5? Jun 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C or higher on June 5? Jun 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on June 5? Jun 05 $21 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 40°C or higher on June 5? Jun 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C or below on June 5? Jun 05 $26 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 4? Jun 05 $13 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 05 $401 +$20 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 96% +$71
sports 2% +$11
other 1% +$1
crypto 0% −$4
world 0% −$2
politics 0% $0
culture 0% +$1
tech 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 20°C or below on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $4 8m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $5 9m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 20°C or below on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $5 10m
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Jun BUY No 99¢ $104 1h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Jun BUY No 99¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 102°F or higher on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $15 2h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 102°F or higher on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 102°F or higher on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 102°F or higher on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 84°F or higher on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $32 3h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 86°F or higher on Jun BUY No 99¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 36°C or higher on June BUY No 99¢ $21 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on June 12? BUY No 97¢ $86 25h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C or below on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $15 26h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 98-99°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $15 26h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 88°F or higher on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $50 26h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Jun BUY No 99¢ $109 26h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Jun BUY No 99¢ $72 26h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Jun BUY No 99¢ $198 26h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Jun BUY No 98¢ $2 26h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Jun BUY No 98¢ $15 26h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Jun SELL No 100¢ $401 26h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Jun BUY No 99¢ $10 27h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $29 28h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 98-99°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $15 32h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $0 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 261 +0.9% -8.7% 99% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 589 -0.0% -9.6% 97% 0% -9.2%
all 1252 +1.1% -8.5% 80% 23% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover11.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 23% -9.2%
10% -17.3% 14% -17.9%
15% -25.3% 8% -25.8%
20% -32.6% 6% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,081.36 · official $1,081.36 (match) · 3015 history records