Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:26:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x33d3…bf38 sports 288 markets active 11h ago coverage 45d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (68 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$21,316 (+3%) realized +$21,316 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate65%188W / 100L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,688per market
Trades / day68.4pace
Fees−$8,098est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$604
7 days+$103
14 days+$13,191
30 days+$10,475
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$12,684
other 0% +$2,292
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (68 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -9.7% -18.3% 52% 35% -9.3%
≤30d 178 +9.9% -0.6% 63% 48% -7.5%
≤90d 288 +12.1% +1.4% 65% 54% -7.8%
all 288 +12.1% +1.4% 65% 54% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover68.4 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.4% 54% -7.8%
10% -8.3% 43% -16.6%
15% ← realistic here -17.2% 34% -24.7%
20% -25.3% 23% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$3,071) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +16% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
9.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,183 vs −$2,074 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$21,316
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses188 / 100
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$8,098
Open positions0
Markets (closed)288 / 288
History coverage45d
Avg bet$2,688
Trades / day68.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 288 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $1,083 −$1,065 -98%
Colombia vs. Portugal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $570 −$570 -100%
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs Keyd - Map 2 Winner Jun 27 $1,736 +$403 +23%
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs Keyd (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship S Jun 27 $1,258 +$114 +9%
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $2,022 −$2,022 -100%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 27 $612 +$786 +128%
Panama vs. England: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $956 +$643 +67%
Croatia leading at halftime? Jun 27 $629 +$1,829 +291%
Croatia vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $757 −$125 -16%
Croatia vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $221 +$478 +216%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Academy vs SAW (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 27 $9 +$1 +6%
LoL Cross Regional 2026: DNS vs LOS Jun 27 $1,114 +$140 +13%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage Jun 27 $331 +$98 +30%
Counter-Strike: PCIFIC vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournament Jun 26 $776 −$776 -100%
LoL Cross Regional: DNS vs FLY Jun 26 $746 +$858 +115%
Valorant: Riddle vs Fennel - Map 2 Winner Jun 26 $9 +$9 +93%
Valorant: Riddle vs Fennel (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Jun 26 $5 +$2 +32%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $1,755 −$1,425 -81%
LoL Cross Regional 2026: DK vs FLY Jun 26 $246 +$20 +8%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Cloud9 (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage Jun 26 $487 +$30 +6%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S Jun 26 $715 +$943 +132%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs LOS (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage Jun 26 $762 +$507 +67%
Valorant: REJECT vs IGZIST - Map 2 Winner Jun 26 $177 +$57 +32%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $69 −$69 -100%
LoL: Conviction vs CCG Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $19 −$19 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $1,120 −$35 -3%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 26 $97 −$97 -100%
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs MANA eSports - Map 1 Winner Jun 26 $111 −$111 -100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $143 −$143 -100%
Counter-Strike: LPH Gaming vs UNiTY esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 26 $83 −$83 -100%
Paraguay vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $177 −$177 -100%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $386 −$172 -45%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 26 $1,426 −$1,426 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1,726 +$1,674 +97%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 26 $1,668 +$1,332 +80%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $787 −$787 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 26 $2,355 +$1,190 +50%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 25 $136 −$136 -100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $1,673 −$1,673 -100%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $388 −$388 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $408 −$408 -100%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATA Jun 25 $99 −$99 -100%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs REKONIX - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $524 −$524 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 25 $563 −$563 -100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $781 −$781 -100%
LoL: Leviatan Esports vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $904 −$105 -12%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $975 −$975 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 25 $3,977 +$4,250 +107%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 25 $3,073 −$3,073 -100%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $768 +$740 +96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 44¢ $1,083 11h
Colombia vs. Portugal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $304 11h
Colombia vs. Portugal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $1 11h
Colombia vs. Portugal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $265 11h
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs Keyd - Map 2 Winner SELL Fluxo 100¢ $2,083 11h
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs Keyd - Map 2 Winner SELL Fluxo 100¢ $55 11h
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs Keyd (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship S SELL Fluxo 100¢ $1,372 11h
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs Keyd (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship S BUY Fluxo 91¢ $581 12h
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs Keyd (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship S BUY Fluxo 91¢ $65 12h
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs Keyd - Map 2 Winner BUY Fluxo 74¢ $122 12h
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs Keyd - Map 2 Winner BUY Fluxo 74¢ $8 12h
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs Keyd - Map 2 Winner BUY Fluxo 84¢ $617 12h
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs Keyd - Map 2 Winner BUY Fluxo 84¢ $28 12h
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs Keyd - Map 2 Winner BUY Fluxo 84¢ $186 12h
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs Keyd - Map 2 Winner BUY Fluxo 84¢ $7 12h
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs Keyd - Map 2 Winner BUY Fluxo 84¢ $13 12h
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs Keyd - Map 2 Winner BUY Fluxo 84¢ $12 12h
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs Keyd - Map 2 Winner BUY Fluxo 84¢ $7 12h
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs Keyd - Map 2 Winner BUY Fluxo 84¢ $56 12h
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs Keyd (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship S BUY Fluxo 92¢ $184 12h
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs Keyd (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship S BUY Fluxo 92¢ $421 12h
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs Keyd - Map 2 Winner BUY Fluxo 81¢ $234 12h
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs Keyd - Map 2 Winner BUY Fluxo 77¢ $447 12h
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs Keyd (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship S BUY Fluxo 86¢ $6 12h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 100¢ $1,399 12h
Panama vs. England: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,598 12h
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $33 12h
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $1,989 12h
Panama vs. England: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $239 13h
Panama vs. England: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $717 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3280 history records