Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:03:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x33cf…2876 crypto 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 190d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialistFresh edge
Total PnL −$5 (-5%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +28% what you keep after slip
Net edge+28%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%14W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% +$3
politics 8% −$7
world 3% −$1
economics 3% −$3
other 1% $0
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+28.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +73.8% +57.3% 43% 43% -19.8%
≤30d 30 +73.8% +57.3% 43% 43% -19.8%
≤90d 30 +73.8% +57.3% 43% 43% -19.8%
all 39 +41.7% +28.2% 36% 36% -33.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +28.2% 36% -33.2%
10% +16.0% 31% -39.6%
15% +4.7% 23% -45.4%
20% -5.5% 23% -50.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +42% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +99% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

190d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses14 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage190d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions (25 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$5 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$10 +241%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$6 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +19%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1 $0 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +133%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +24%
Will Netflix close Warner Bros acquisition? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +212%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? Mar 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Jan 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jan 30 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 10? Jan 04 $1 +$2 +212%
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after December 2025 meetin Dec 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Dec 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in December? Dec 08 $1 −$1 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Dec 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 99 history records