Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:05:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x33ce…dea1 other 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 385d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$135 (-9%) realized −$134 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%8W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$77now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% +$78
other 17% −$74
tech 13% −$26
sports 11% +$79
world 11% −$170
crypto 3% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 24 +1.7% -8.0% 33% 33% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 33% -17.8%
10% -16.8% 33% -25.7%
15% -24.9% 33% -32.9%
20% -32.2% 33% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$42 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

385d coverage
Net worth$77
Realized−$134
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses8 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage385d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $78 $77 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will AG.AL win the 2025 League of Legends Esports World Cup Tournament Jul 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Anyone's Legend win the 2025 Mid-Season Invitational? Jun 28 $33 −$33 -100%
Will T1 win the 2025 Mid-Season Invitational? Jun 28 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Austrian Grand Prix pole? Jun 28 $39 −$39 -100%
US military action against Iran before July? Jun 20 $60 −$60 -100%
Will George Russell win the 2025 Canadian Grand Prix? Jun 20 $15 +$48 +317%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 14 $100 −$22 -22%
Iran strike on Israel by Friday? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Thunder vs. Pacers Jun 14 $45 +$29 +64%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4 AM ET Jun 13 $19 −$19 -100%
Israel military action against Iran before July? Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Oilers vs. Panthers Jun 13 $28 +$37 +133%
Thunder vs. Pacers Jun 12 $15 +$28 +186%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% in May? Jun 12 $26 +$45 +174%
Will Steven Fulop win the second most in the New Jersey Governor Democ Jun 11 $251 −$60 -24%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Jun 11 $100 −$4 -4%
Astros vs. Guardians Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5 AM ET Jun 07 $20 −$2 -8%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo play in FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the US add between 100k and 149k jobs in May? Jun 06 $20 +$18 +89%
Will Donald Trump say "Big beautiful bill" during Merz events on June Jun 06 $50 −$50 -100%
Will valid votes be between 36 million and 38 million in South Korean Jun 06 $140 −$140 -100%
Will valid votes be between 32 million and 34 million in South Korean Jun 03 $200 +$181 +90%
Will Kim Moon-soo win more than 40% of the vote in the South Korea ele Jun 03 $60 +$147 +244%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 14¢ $80 1h
Will AG.AL win the 2025 League of Legends Esports World Cup Tournament BUY Yes 45¢ $40 333d
Will Anyone's Legend win the 2025 Mid-Season Invitational? BUY Yes 20¢ $33 354d
Will T1 win the 2025 Mid-Season Invitational? BUY Yes 27¢ $47 354d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Austrian Grand Prix pole? BUY Yes 20¢ $39 354d
US military action against Iran before July? BUY No 60¢ $60 362d
Will George Russell win the 2025 Canadian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 24¢ $15 368d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 39¢ $78 368d
Thunder vs. Pacers BUY Thunder 61¢ $45 369d
Iran strike on Israel by Friday? BUY No 12¢ $10 370d
Oilers vs. Panthers BUY Oilers 43¢ $28 370d
Israel military action against Iran before July? BUY No 53¢ $100 370d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4 AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $19 371d
Thunder vs. Pacers BUY Pacers 35¢ $15 371d
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% in May? BUY Yes 36¢ $26 371d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 50¢ $100 372d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL Yes 48¢ $96 372d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY Yes 50¢ $100 372d
Will Steven Fulop win the second most in the New Jersey Governor Democ BUY Yes 43¢ $48 372d
Will Steven Fulop win the second most in the New Jersey Governor Democ SELL Yes 38¢ $180 372d
Will Steven Fulop win the second most in the New Jersey Governor Democ BUY Yes 41¢ $48 372d
Will Steven Fulop win the second most in the New Jersey Governor Democ BUY Yes 40¢ $48 372d
Will Steven Fulop win the second most in the New Jersey Governor Democ BUY Yes 40¢ $48 372d
Will Steven Fulop win the second most in the New Jersey Governor Democ BUY Yes 39¢ $48 372d
Will Steven Fulop win the second most in the New Jersey Governor Democ SELL Yes 38¢ $11 372d
Will Steven Fulop win the second most in the New Jersey Governor Democ BUY Yes 38¢ $11 372d
Astros vs. Guardians BUY Guardians 49¢ $20 375d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5 AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $18 376d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5 AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $20 376d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo play in FIFA Club World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $20 376d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77.48 · official $77.48 (match) · 51 history records