trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? | Jun 14 | $998 | −$2 | -0% |
| Will Saeed Jalili be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Jun 14 | $49 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Jun 14 | $33 | $0 | -1% |
| Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Jun 14 | $980 | −$1 | -0% |
| Netanyahu out by May 31? | May 25 | $74 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Moon Jin-seok win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial | May 25 | $29 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | May 25 | $17 | $0 | -0% |
| Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | May 22 | $33 | $0 | -0% |
| Chirayu Rana apologizes for sexual harassment allegations? | May 22 | $36 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | May 22 | $42 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | May 22 | $925 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | May 22 | $946 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | May 21 | $900 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | May 20 | $938 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? | May 20 | $964 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 | May 20 | $845 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Israel strike 14 countries in 2026? | May 19 | $67 | $0 | -0% |
| Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? | May 19 | $871 | −$3 | -0% |
| Will Taylor Fritz win the 2026 Men's French Open? | May 19 | $874 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | May 19 | $910 | −$2 | -0% |
| Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Apr 05 | $110 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Apr 05 | $41 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Vicky Dávila win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential | Apr 05 | $20 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Reform Party (RP) win the 2026 South Korean local elections? | Apr 01 | $101 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Apr 01 | $25 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? | Apr 01 | $29 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Tom Kim win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Mar 29 | $76 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | Mar 29 | $58 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Mar 29 | $21 | $0 | -0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | -0.3% | -9.8% | 0% | 0% | -9.7% |
| ≤30d | 20 | -0.2% | -9.7% | 0% | 0% | -9.6% |
| ≤90d | 29 | -0.2% | -9.7% | 0% | 0% | -9.6% |
| all | 29 | -0.2% | -9.7% | 0% | 0% | -9.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.7% | 0% | -9.6% |
| 10% | -18.3% | 0% | -18.3% |
| 15% | -26.2% | 0% | -26.2% |
| 20% | -33.4% | 0% | -33.4% |